Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 21

The market staged a counter-rally today after testing last week's low in the morning. If the rally continues tomorrow then there's a good chance the Trend Average is going to be tested. What happens after the TA is tested in anyone's guess as the trend bias is bearish but this season is normally bullish. Whatever the case, I will be adding Russia to my portfolio this or next week. It's hard to ignore the dividends and how undervalued their companies are at the moment.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 18

The market continued its sell off as expected but the 2013-2019 level was not able to stop the selling and instead the market had a very bearish end of the day close at 2005. Still, until 1993 is breached, there is still the possibility of a Christmas rally taking place next week. If sellers are able to break support then selling will probably accelerate. I went long as planned at 2020 and got too comfortable and did not place a stop after seeing the initial bounce from 2013, so I will be adjusting it next week to 1993.

The focus is again oil prices and as I said a few weeks ago there is a good chance the $32-33 level will be tested before a substantial counter-rally. Considering the close today was $34.50, a bottom (even if temporary) is coming soon and that should help equities. However, in the overall scheme of things, low oil prices benefits consumers and I've personally saved about $1000 this year compared to what I used to pay ($4-4.25 p/g) before the oil crash. And where it gets better is one can get a portion or all of those savings and give it to your favorite charity and still get a deduction for it! Regardless of what bears say, the economy is doing well and this is the time to give something back to those who are not as fortunate.

So if you had a good year and are able to give, here are some good charities.


http://www.aspca.org/donate‎

https://donate.salvationarmyusa.org

http://www.redcross.org

https://donate.doctorswithoutborders.org


Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.


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Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 17

The market has entered a correction as expected and given the strong bearish momentum we could see 2019 tested. I assume the rally after this bearish wave is over is what is going to set up the general direction of the market for the rest of the month. A Christmas rally is very likely if the Trend Average turns positive in the next few sessions. Failure to trade over the TA will set up the market for accelerated selling.

I will be going long as close to 2019 as possible to use 2013 as a stop, a very similar trade I did couple of weeks ago.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 16

The Fed finally decided to raise interest rates after almost 10 years! This is actually a good sign for the general economic cycle as the country will finally be moving out out of crisis mode. Back in 2006 the economic felt great, money was plentiful and even a immigrant janitor for my business bought a $400K house and a nice new truck on minimum wage. I had feeling then a recession was coming (around the time Bush came out with a cash stimulus) and eventually reality set in. Now in 2015, unemployment is almost as low as back then and the economy feels good enough. But now that interest will start rising, my guess is there will be a recession coming after a few hikes, perhaps in 2017? Personally, I am hoping there will be one in 2017 or 2018 so I can buy more stuff cheap. If Hillary wins, an immediate recession is almost certain.

Anyway, the market made a higher high and closed comfortably above the Trend Average. If the pullback on this 5 micro-count manages to stay above the TA and the 50 DMA, there is still hope for a Christmas rally to new ATH. I didn't buy anything in the US today but I bought more China yesterday and planning to buy Russia as they are very cheap at the moment.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 15

The market continued its counter-rally today in a bullish W3 and the Trend Average was tested as expected after 2042 failed to hold the advance. Looking at the waves, once could make the case for a completed 5 wave structure so another sell off or pullback should come soon. I suppose the excuse for whatever the market does next will be the decision by the Feds. Personally, I hope they start hiking rates to get it over with.

I ended up selling all my longs at the TA test and I'm back in cash on my trading account.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 14

The market made a lower low just above 1990 support early morning before rebounding to close the day at 2021. All trends are now bearish and bulls would need to re-capture the 2060 level to keep their hopes alive. The only thing that looks "bullish" is how the leg from 2093 to 1993 looks corrective, which implies the recent sell off will only lead to a bigger rally. For now, the best is to be cautious until the market reaches key trading levels. I went long as planned and I almost got in at 1993 but by the time I was able to input the order the market was at 1997. And given the substantial bounce, I am raising my stop to what could be a micro-2 at 2006. I expect a test of the TA if 2042 is not able to stop the counter-rally.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 11

Yesterday I was leaning towards labeling the correction over but today's sell off was firmly bearish. The previous low of 2019 was broken and the close is well below both the 50 and the 200 DMA, unless the market manages to bounce off this range (1990-2020) convincingly, my assumption is lower lows ahead. Still, we have to keep in mind that in the long term picture this could be the C of the LT W4, which implies a bottom will be found and a new extended rally to new highs will come in a LT W5. Also, the excuse for the sell off continues to be oil and like I mentioned the other day, a break of $37 would likely lead to a test of the 2009 low of $32. So a likely bottom, even if temporary, is in sight for oil and that will help equities rally. For now, the best is to stay with the Trend Average and not fight it. I'll go long only if we get close to 1990 and with a 5 point stop.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.