Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 17

The market has entered a correction as expected and given the strong bearish momentum we could see 2019 tested. I assume the rally after this bearish wave is over is what is going to set up the general direction of the market for the rest of the month. A Christmas rally is very likely if the Trend Average turns positive in the next few sessions. Failure to trade over the TA will set up the market for accelerated selling.

I will be going long as close to 2019 as possible to use 2013 as a stop, a very similar trade I did couple of weeks ago.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 16

The Fed finally decided to raise interest rates after almost 10 years! This is actually a good sign for the general economic cycle as the country will finally be moving out out of crisis mode. Back in 2006 the economic felt great, money was plentiful and even a immigrant janitor for my business bought a $400K house and a nice new truck on minimum wage. I had feeling then a recession was coming (around the time Bush came out with a cash stimulus) and eventually reality set in. Now in 2015, unemployment is almost as low as back then and the economy feels good enough. But now that interest will start rising, my guess is there will be a recession coming after a few hikes, perhaps in 2017? Personally, I am hoping there will be one in 2017 or 2018 so I can buy more stuff cheap. If Hillary wins, an immediate recession is almost certain.

Anyway, the market made a higher high and closed comfortably above the Trend Average. If the pullback on this 5 micro-count manages to stay above the TA and the 50 DMA, there is still hope for a Christmas rally to new ATH. I didn't buy anything in the US today but I bought more China yesterday and planning to buy Russia as they are very cheap at the moment.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 15

The market continued its counter-rally today in a bullish W3 and the Trend Average was tested as expected after 2042 failed to hold the advance. Looking at the waves, once could make the case for a completed 5 wave structure so another sell off or pullback should come soon. I suppose the excuse for whatever the market does next will be the decision by the Feds. Personally, I hope they start hiking rates to get it over with.

I ended up selling all my longs at the TA test and I'm back in cash on my trading account.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 14

The market made a lower low just above 1990 support early morning before rebounding to close the day at 2021. All trends are now bearish and bulls would need to re-capture the 2060 level to keep their hopes alive. The only thing that looks "bullish" is how the leg from 2093 to 1993 looks corrective, which implies the recent sell off will only lead to a bigger rally. For now, the best is to be cautious until the market reaches key trading levels. I went long as planned and I almost got in at 1993 but by the time I was able to input the order the market was at 1997. And given the substantial bounce, I am raising my stop to what could be a micro-2 at 2006. I expect a test of the TA if 2042 is not able to stop the counter-rally.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 11

Yesterday I was leaning towards labeling the correction over but today's sell off was firmly bearish. The previous low of 2019 was broken and the close is well below both the 50 and the 200 DMA, unless the market manages to bounce off this range (1990-2020) convincingly, my assumption is lower lows ahead. Still, we have to keep in mind that in the long term picture this could be the C of the LT W4, which implies a bottom will be found and a new extended rally to new highs will come in a LT W5. Also, the excuse for the sell off continues to be oil and like I mentioned the other day, a break of $37 would likely lead to a test of the 2009 low of $32. So a likely bottom, even if temporary, is in sight for oil and that will help equities rally. For now, the best is to stay with the Trend Average and not fight it. I'll go long only if we get close to 1990 and with a 5 point stop.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 10

The market rallied towards the TA today but much of the gains were reversed by the close. Looking at the wave structure, I am inclined towards labeling this leg a C due to the all the overlapping waves. Unless there is a clean break of support in the next few days in a W3, chances are the correction is coming to an end. Oscillators have been resetting and conditions are ideal for a Christmas rally going by Technicals alone. Maybe by the time the Feds make the decision on rates the markets will be ready to move forward.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 9

A lower low was made today and the most recent bullish set up has been eliminated. Still, the Nov 2019 low remains in place and it is a must hold level for the bullish case. If the market is able to re-capture the 50 DMA and eventually the Trend Average in the next few sessions it will be setting itself up for a Christmas rally. However, failure to trade over the TA will mean further downside in the next few weeks.

Oil has been trading around its $37 low and needs to stage a strong counter-rally soon or risk losing support and sell off to test its multi-year low of $32. The low in 2009 was due to demand side problems as economies were plunging into recessions and depressions. Today, the problem is entirely on the supply side as shale oil has dramatically increased supply. And it will be interesting to see how this ends up playing out as OPEC (specifically our "ally" Saudi Arabia) are refusing to cut production in order to drive North American shale oil companies out of business. The problem with that thinking is that as soon as prices go back up to $50 then shale oil companies will come back to the market. In the end, the typical American driver has saved around $800 dollars this year in gas so hopefully this will go on for a while. This number btw translates to about $180 billion into the pockets of consumers (just in the US) instead of oil companies and our friends in the Middle East. Whatever negative impact of low energy oil prices is more than made up by the savings we are enjoying as a whole.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.