Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 11

Yesterday I was leaning towards labeling the correction over but today's sell off was firmly bearish. The previous low of 2019 was broken and the close is well below both the 50 and the 200 DMA, unless the market manages to bounce off this range (1990-2020) convincingly, my assumption is lower lows ahead. Still, we have to keep in mind that in the long term picture this could be the C of the LT W4, which implies a bottom will be found and a new extended rally to new highs will come in a LT W5. Also, the excuse for the sell off continues to be oil and like I mentioned the other day, a break of $37 would likely lead to a test of the 2009 low of $32. So a likely bottom, even if temporary, is in sight for oil and that will help equities rally. For now, the best is to stay with the Trend Average and not fight it. I'll go long only if we get close to 1990 and with a 5 point stop.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 10

The market rallied towards the TA today but much of the gains were reversed by the close. Looking at the wave structure, I am inclined towards labeling this leg a C due to the all the overlapping waves. Unless there is a clean break of support in the next few days in a W3, chances are the correction is coming to an end. Oscillators have been resetting and conditions are ideal for a Christmas rally going by Technicals alone. Maybe by the time the Feds make the decision on rates the markets will be ready to move forward.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 9

A lower low was made today and the most recent bullish set up has been eliminated. Still, the Nov 2019 low remains in place and it is a must hold level for the bullish case. If the market is able to re-capture the 50 DMA and eventually the Trend Average in the next few sessions it will be setting itself up for a Christmas rally. However, failure to trade over the TA will mean further downside in the next few weeks.

Oil has been trading around its $37 low and needs to stage a strong counter-rally soon or risk losing support and sell off to test its multi-year low of $32. The low in 2009 was due to demand side problems as economies were plunging into recessions and depressions. Today, the problem is entirely on the supply side as shale oil has dramatically increased supply. And it will be interesting to see how this ends up playing out as OPEC (specifically our "ally" Saudi Arabia) are refusing to cut production in order to drive North American shale oil companies out of business. The problem with that thinking is that as soon as prices go back up to $50 then shale oil companies will come back to the market. In the end, the typical American driver has saved around $800 dollars this year in gas so hopefully this will go on for a while. This number btw translates to about $180 billion into the pockets of consumers (just in the US) instead of oil companies and our friends in the Middle East. Whatever negative impact of low energy oil prices is more than made up by the savings we are enjoying as a whole.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 8

The market made a lower low today and unless this is a bearish nested W3 wave, there is a good chance the bottom is in for this particular correction as long as the low holds. However, the close is well under the Trend Average and a bottom can't be confirmed until that level is re-captured. The ongoing concern is oil, which has been a drag on energy companies and the overall market this year. The next major support for oil is $32, which is not all that far from current levels and if that level holds, we should see a rally to the 50 DMA again and with that a parallel rally in equities. In all, lower oil prices is equivalent to a tax break so the lower the better for consumers and the economy in general (except those states who depend on oil production).

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 7

I got back early morning (after a 12 hour flight) and been working non-stop all day so I will make this short for today. Basically, the market closing below the Trend Average is a negative. However, the pattern is bullish as long as the 2042 low holds. So if the TA can be re-captured soon, we should see higher highs coming. I will write more on possible scenarios tomorrow once I get good sleep.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 4

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 3

The market broke support at 2070 to confirm a bigger correction and ended testing the 2038-2045 support area, which might be re-visited again on another bearish leg. I am assuming this sell off won't go below the 50 DMA but it is obviously too early to tell. As long as the market trades above the 2019 low for the previous wave structure, the bias will continue to be bullish.

I have been reading the news on the shooting in California (it happened not all that far from where I live) and I am still amazed at how political correctness has blinded common sense. Apparently, it's too hard for some people to figure out the "motive". It's actually beyond ridiculous.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.