Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 9

A lower low was made today and the most recent bullish set up has been eliminated. Still, the Nov 2019 low remains in place and it is a must hold level for the bullish case. If the market is able to re-capture the 50 DMA and eventually the Trend Average in the next few sessions it will be setting itself up for a Christmas rally. However, failure to trade over the TA will mean further downside in the next few weeks.

Oil has been trading around its $37 low and needs to stage a strong counter-rally soon or risk losing support and sell off to test its multi-year low of $32. The low in 2009 was due to demand side problems as economies were plunging into recessions and depressions. Today, the problem is entirely on the supply side as shale oil has dramatically increased supply. And it will be interesting to see how this ends up playing out as OPEC (specifically our "ally" Saudi Arabia) are refusing to cut production in order to drive North American shale oil companies out of business. The problem with that thinking is that as soon as prices go back up to $50 then shale oil companies will come back to the market. In the end, the typical American driver has saved around $800 dollars this year in gas so hopefully this will go on for a while. This number btw translates to about $180 billion into the pockets of consumers (just in the US) instead of oil companies and our friends in the Middle East. Whatever negative impact of low energy oil prices is more than made up by the savings we are enjoying as a whole.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 8

The market made a lower low today and unless this is a bearish nested W3 wave, there is a good chance the bottom is in for this particular correction as long as the low holds. However, the close is well under the Trend Average and a bottom can't be confirmed until that level is re-captured. The ongoing concern is oil, which has been a drag on energy companies and the overall market this year. The next major support for oil is $32, which is not all that far from current levels and if that level holds, we should see a rally to the 50 DMA again and with that a parallel rally in equities. In all, lower oil prices is equivalent to a tax break so the lower the better for consumers and the economy in general (except those states who depend on oil production).

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 7

I got back early morning (after a 12 hour flight) and been working non-stop all day so I will make this short for today. Basically, the market closing below the Trend Average is a negative. However, the pattern is bullish as long as the 2042 low holds. So if the TA can be re-captured soon, we should see higher highs coming. I will write more on possible scenarios tomorrow once I get good sleep.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 4

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 3

The market broke support at 2070 to confirm a bigger correction and ended testing the 2038-2045 support area, which might be re-visited again on another bearish leg. I am assuming this sell off won't go below the 50 DMA but it is obviously too early to tell. As long as the market trades above the 2019 low for the previous wave structure, the bias will continue to be bullish.

I have been reading the news on the shooting in California (it happened not all that far from where I live) and I am still amazed at how political correctness has blinded common sense. Apparently, it's too hard for some people to figure out the "motive". It's actually beyond ridiculous.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 2

The market reversed all its gains from yesterday and it closed below the Trend Average. A move below 2070 would confirm a top for the wave structure that started at 2019. If bulls manage to get past yesterday's high, then 2016 will likely be challenged. Unfortunately for me, I got stopped out at break even so I am back where I was last week. The reason for the sell off today was oil, which will end up testing $37 if support at $40 fails. So that could provide a reason for bigger correction in the next week or two.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bulliss trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 1

The market has continued to follow the count as I had been expecting and now we have a higher high in the 2100 level. Technically speaking the structure from 2019 can be counted as complete as all it needed was a 5th wave. But I get the feeling this wave will end up pushing towards the previous high of 2016, so we'll see if there is enough momentum to get there. I continue to hold my longs but I am now raising my stop to break even (on my latest purchase) at 2089.

I have a few more days in China before I fly back on the weekend. Based on my observations here, a lot of the talk in the west on the Chinese economy is just pure overblown bearish drama. Not all that different from the bearish talk in the US actually.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.