Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 16

The market bounced right off the 2020 support level in a very bullish day. And as I mentioned last week, one could argue for an ABC move from the 2016 top and a rally past 2068 will confirm this. In an ideal world, the market would continue to correct and test today's low again after this rally exhausts. But considering my target area for the correction (1990-2020) has already been reached, the market is free to continue to rally without pulling back.

I assumed the tragedy in Paris would affect sentiment but I guess the market is moving on. This mess in the Middle East will continue to linger until we just leave the entire place or go back in there and annihilate the terrorists. This war from the air is not doing much unfortunately and Obama is basically clueless (not that this mess is primarily his fault). Too bad we can't just drop a nuke and get rid of them once in for all.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 13

The market went right through the 2039 market support early morning and ended the day near the next support level in the 2020 area. I am not ready to label the waves until I see what the market does on Monday but one could argue for a completed ABC from the 2016 top. However, if selling accelerates on Monday breaking below 2000 then the wave today is part of a bearish W3. And again, the selling should not come as a surprise after a 12%+ rally in 5 weeks. If selling gets out of control the we'll evaluate the bearish options.

I was originally hoping to short but since selling ended near support, I had to go long towards the end of the day to play the bounce.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 12

The market has likely topped at 2116 for its Int W1 given with today's decisively bearish close. I had been hoping for a 5th wave to complete at a higher high but chances now look dim. Looking at possible retrace areas for the wave from 1871 to 2116, I like the 1990-2020 area as possible bottoms but a counter-rally is expected if the 2039 support level holds. A good correction would set up the market for a strong rally towards the end of this month or early December. The current excuses for sell off have been lower oil prices (which is ultimately bullish imo) and the interest rate hike, which in itself is historically bullish in the short term for the stock market. So my guess is the market will close the year with a new ATH. But for now I will be looking to short on a bounce to the Trend Average.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 11

I was under the impression the markets were going to be closed today because of Veteran's Day but I guess not. Anyway, the W5 impulse I've been anticipating has yet to materialize and the count is running out of time. So unless the market stages a strong rally in the next couple of days, chances are the top for the wave structure from 1871 is in. Confirmation should come in the break of this week's low at 2068. This has been a long rally and a substantial correction should be expected but it would be nicer if the count completed so I could short it at the top.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 10

The market tested yesterday's low early morning but ended putting in a higher low, which supports further upside after the holiday in a W5. However, we have to keep in mind the trend average has turned bearish and and a break of yesterday's low could confirm the end of the wave from 1871. I think the ideal scenario would be a push towards the ATH and then a substantial correction to set the market up for a strong rally towards the end of the year.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 9

I was wrong in assuming the correction was over on Friday and today we saw the correction continue by putting in a lower low. Still, the wave count doesn't change as the waves look like a double zig zag. Therefore, if today's low holds, there is a good chance a rally will gain traction in the next session or two. With that said, If the market fails to re-capture the Trend Average then there is a higher chance the rally from 1871 is finally over after 5 weeks of almost non-stop rallying.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 6

The 2080 resistance ended up being tested after all with today's early morning "sell off". And we should see a rally starting early next week to a higher high and perhaps even challenge the all time high. The jobs report blew past expectations, so the worry is mainly a rate hike in December which in my opinion is already priced in. In fact, once a rate hike is announced, the excuse of using a rate hike as a reason for selling will no longer be there and should lead to an environment for a sustained uptrend to 2,200+ this or next year. And as I have been saying for years, there will be a "bear market" eventually when we finally get a recession. Until then, it's better to accept and recognize the ongoing bull market and the strength of the economy as manifested in our unemployment numbers and GDP growth.

China continues to show signs of strength as well, so I am hoping for another "bubble" rally towards the end of the year. Maybe then I can start to ca$h in.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.