Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 30

The 2100 hundred level was challenged in pre-market but the highest the market could go in cash was 2094 before selling off towards the end of the day. There is still a chance for one more push on Monday towards 2100 again before a correction to the Trend Average/200 DMA. I didn't get a chance to buy back shorts today but maybe I'll get a chance next week. I don't think resistance will break without a minor correction first given how much the market has rallied in the past month, officially the best month in 4 years!

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 29

The market went into consolidation mode today instead of rallying as I was expecting. Still, a higher high was made and we could see the wave evolve into an ending diagonal to challenge the 2100 area. The market has gone up 12% in just 4 weeks and it's not inconceivable to see it rally 2% more for a new all time high before a proper correction. The biggest challenge for the bulls is the 2103-2134 area, if they can clear that then they're good for much higher prices towards the end of the year.

I watched most of the debate last night and I have my list of favorites. However, it doesn't look like they will win. Here are my impressions of the candidates.

Trump - Seems like he has toned it down a little. He just talks a lot about himself in detail, vague plans as a President.
Carson - Seems very analytical, which is good. However, his tax plan doesn't add up. You can't tax GDP at 15%, close "loopholes" and then magically pay for the budget.
Fiorina - I would pick her any day over Hilary and she is my favorite among the Washington outsiders. She has the facts down and is very detailed.
Ted Cruz - I'd hire this guy to be my attorney and he would be excellent as an attorney general. Very sharp but too right wing.
Rubio - Very good talker (reminds me of Obama actually) but his personal finances shows he is not ready for the job he is applying for. Who cashes our his IRA to incur penalties after receiving $1 million in book royalties?
Huckabee - Honest man but too conservative.
Rand Paul - Agree with him the most in principle
Bush - He shot himself in the foot by going after his former protege, shows judgement issues.
John Kasich - Has the experience, knows how things work and he is not deceiving the public like some of the others.
Gov Christie - Has the experience, gets things done, realistic and actually acknowledges global warming. He would be my first choice for the job but unfortunately he is too honest for the general public (people don't like to hear the truth).

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 28

The market had a strong day as expected and now it is getting closer to the resistance level I mentioned yesterday. If this wave is sub-dividing (it looks likely), we should see a gap up or continuation of the rally early tomorrow morning. Perhaps news of the budget deal will give bulls enough of an excuse to push against 2103.

I am looking forward to the debate tonight. If Jeb doesn't get traction, he will be gone and it will come down to the Doc and the Clown. They might even team up to make America great again!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 27

The correction continued today but again prices did not move much and short term oscillators have now reset for another bullish leg. I am looking at 2103 as the major point of resistance, so we'll see if the bulls have enough momentum to carry the market there. Once a short term top is found again, I expect the Trend Average to be tested. I'll probably buy back the shorts I sold last week as we get closer to resistance.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 26

The market consolidated in a somewhat uneventful day. Short term oscillators are resetting and I expect another rally soon that will challenge the 2100 level, which is where the next major resistance level is. October is almost over and the SP500 is up less than 1% in 2015, so we'll see what the bulls can do for the next couple of months. I remember my original projection for the SP500 for this year was 2250 in December 2014 (as long as there is no recession) and we might see the market get there if the rally starts gathering momentum.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 23

The market breezed through the 200 DMA as if it didn't exist in another very bullish day.  I had expected the 200 DMA to be challenged in the best case scenario under the count I was posting but since the market is showing signs of a W3, I have to re-label the count. I mentioned the possibility of a very bullish count when the market bottomed at 1990 couple of weeks with this bottom as a W2. I figured after a 100+ point rally at that point, the more reasonable label would be a W4 for 1990. But it now looks like this current structure from 1871 is heading much higher before a significant correction. In fact, there is enough momentum to reach an all time high on this wave.

When the stronger correction was predicted in August (around the time the intermediate term turned bearish), I felt the 1820-1900 area served as a good area for a LT W4 to bottom. I expected the correction to take longer and perhaps challenge the 1820 level. But instead it seems the LT W4 was a one wave correction to 1867 as it now looks very unlikely we will see stronger sell offs in the near future. So my expectation is for the market to rally the rest of the year and perhaps most of 2016 as well. Interest rate hikes look even more unlikely now that the EU is hinting at more QE and China continues cutting RRR,  these factors support a worldwide rally. So don't be surprised to see new all time highs now only in the US but in Europe and China.

I covered my shorts at the 200 DMA as planned and I am not shorting this until the new count is completed. In the meantime, I am hoping China continues to rally in what continues to look like the start of a W3. Maybe I'll get lucky and reach my retirement goal by summer 2016.

Have a great weekend!


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 22

I was wrong in assuming 2039 was the top of the count as prices easily broke resistance early morning. The next obvious challenge is 2060, which is the 200 DMA and if that breaks then there isn't much resistance until 2100. I moved some labels around to reflect today's rally but if the rally gets past 2060, then I'll have to consider something else. The bias has been right but the count is starting to look suspect.

I am assuming the positive earnings announcements after the market closed will push prices towards resistance tomorrow. I am ready to sell the shorts I bought at 2030 if the 200 DMA doesn't hold but I I will be buying them back later for a third try. At this point, I think most bears are starting to realize their time is over.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bearish 

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.