Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 12

The market consolidated today and reset some of its short term oscillators, which lines up well with the count posted. Assuming we see the wave complete in the cash market, we should see a higher high in the next couple of sessions before the start of a bigger correction. I like the 2030+ level as the top, so I will be buying back the shorts I sold last week at a big discount if I can catch them at that level. With that said, I am now just expecting a correction as opposed to a lower low or 1820 given the length of current bullish wave. I know some people want a bigger correction but bears are simply running out of time.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I per

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 9

Earlier this week I posted the following when resistance broke:

"The market kept rallying today in what seems like a bullish micro W3 and I wouldn't be surprised if 2020 is going to be challenged before any meaningful correction"

Now that 2020 was reached, we can finally see a bigger correction. But since the 5th wave sub-divided into a 5 count, the ideal scenario would be one more push up towards the 2030 area (possibly even 2039) and then a substantial pullback. The next bearish wave is very important as it could be a make or break wave for bearish case for the remainder of the year. In order to stop the bullish impulse, bears would have to bring down the market below 1867-1871 or about 8%. Anything that fails to make a lower low will confirm a bullish bias in the market and could form a base for a sustainable multi-month rally. If the wave from 1847 to 2020 (so far) is W1 of LT 5, then the target is 2,250 assuming no sub-divisions.

I am waiting for the lowest risk/highest reward entry point to short. So I will start buying back the shorts I sold earlier in the week on trade over 2030.

Have a great weekend!


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I per

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 8

I am going to keep this one short as I am in Miami on a quick business trip  and need to wake up early for a meeting. Basically, the 5th wave has sub-divided like I speculated on yesterday's post and the targets remain the same. The 2020 level has technically been tested with today's high but looking at the wave structure, there could still be more upside left before a bigger correction. Bottom line is, bulls look like they are taking back control of the market.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 7

The market rallied as expected in a W5 to a higher high to challenge the 50 DMA at 1996. At this point, there are enough waves to call the entire structure from the 1871 low complete. But as long as 1971.99 holds, we might see the W5 sub-divide and reach the 2020 resistance level. If I breakdown W5 and assume the high today at 1999 was a W1 of W5, then we are looking at 2040 as a target which is right under the next level of resistance at 2053.

I assume how China trades tonight might influence the US market tomorrow. The Chinese market has been closed for a week and currently the market here has China priced at 3,400 (last time it traded it closed at 3,050). So if there is a huge rally there tonight, we will see momentum carry over. However, if there is a 5th bearish wave left to the China count as I posted yesterday, then negativity would help bears here in the US. I am waiting for 2020 or 2053 to be challenged to buy back my short position with the expectation of a larger correction. The higher the market goes, the lesser probability 1820 will ended up being tested.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 6

The market has gone into what seems like a W4 and this implies further upside before a bigger correction. Oil is finally breaking out of range and this will help energy components of the market, making it harder for bears to challenge recent lows. If bears fail to bring down the market to the 1867 level again in the next few weeks, chances are the correction that started in May is nearing its conclusion and we will see the resumption of the bull market for one final leg to new highs.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 5

The market kept rallying today in what seems like a bullish micro W3 and I wouldn't be surprised if 2020 is going to be challenged before any meaningful correction. I have been hoping for an "ideal" zig zag to 1820 since the correction started but the higher the market goes, the higher the possibility the correction is over. It seems a weaker than expected jobs report is all the market needed.

I ended up being stopped out of my short at 1956, so not much harm done. And I'll try again at the end of 5 waves or at resistance. Maybe there is still one bearish wave left to this market? China seems like it needs one more bearish wave to complete its correction and maybe that will help the bearish case here. But as it stands, bears are starting to run out of time.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 2

The market sold off early morning after a disappointing jobs reports but then made a huge reversal to end up the day in the 1950-1955, the target resistance level I've been favoring since the rally started. And now that this level has been reached, the market is at a critical point since this is a resistance level that must be cleared to start confirming the end of the correction. The likely path IMO is a bearish wave early next week to test 1908, what happens then will probably decide whether the correction is done or not. Alternatively, if bulls manage to break resistance earlier in the week without pulling back then it will be a sign of strength and the market could head straight to the 50 DMA. Today's close turns the Trend Average bullish.

I ended up closing the rest of my long positions I bought at the low earlier in the week and went short in the very last minute when the market hit 1951. My stop is 1956, so not risking much relative to the potential gain.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.