Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 30

The market has rallied as expected towards the Trend Average and I am expecting a test as soon as tomorrow. The real challenge for bulls will be the 1950-1955 area, if they can clear resistance then they increase their chances of reversing the ongoing downtrend. Still, I'd like to see another low before the start (or continuation) of the bull market. Looking at the fundamental picture, there is nothing out there that points to anything more serious than a correction at this point.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 29

A lower low was put in today at 1871 and this qualifies better as a test of 1867, so I think we will see the Trend Average tested as long as support keeps holding. A potential target for the counter-rally is again the 1950-1955 area and I wouldn't be surprised to see a neckline for an IHS form again. If the bounce does get to that level and we get another 5 waves down equal in length to thr 2120-1871, then the target would be around 1800.

I started to go long today near the bottom and my stop is 1867. I am also considering buying some beaten down companies but I'll probably wait until the correction is over for that as I'd like to hold them. I'm thinking Exxon, Gazprom, and adding to my position on Chinese banks. These companies btw are some of the 10 most profitable companies in the world but they are trading very cheap and paying high dividends.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 28

The market ended going back to the previous low as expected and then some. The low today was 1879, which is close to the 1867 low to start a bounce. Also, the micro-count we've been following is technically complete so we could now see a counter-rally to test the Trend Average. However, if the (iv) label ends up being a (ii), then there is plenty of downside to come before a meaningful bounce. The reason I didn't label the seemingly 5 waves down to 1908 a complete 5 count (which implies today is part of a (iii)-) is because of wave rule violations, specifically the (iii) being just a bit shorter than (i) and (v). Ideally, we would see a bounce and then more downside to get to the target of 1820 or a bit below.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 25

The market went straight to the 1950-1955 area I mentioned yesterday but hit a brick wall there. Assuming the bearish count is correct, we will see 1903 tested early next week. With that said, there is also an Inverse Head and Shoulders targeting 1990 if the high today was a bullish W1, so bulls still have a chance of clearing overhead resistance.

The market seems to have taken the news of a rate hike fairly well but with the potential government shut down coming up, there are plenty of excuses to sell. The fact that John Boehner is resigning is a sign that the extreme right of the Republican party is not going to make discussions to fund government easy. Things could get interesting next week.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 24

The selling continued earlier today and prices came within a few points of 1903. Looking at the wave structure, I moved the W3 or C to today's low to better reflect proportionality. So we could see another strong bearish wave if bulls are not able to clear 1950-1955 in the next sessions or two. I read Yellen just said there will be a rate increase this year so we'll see how the market takes it tomorrow.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 23

The short term trend has now turned bearish and it looks like recent lows are likely to be challenged. The deadline to fund the government is Oct 1st and given the threat by the most conservative side of the Republican party to shut down government unless it gets its way might create the ideal backdrop for a strong sell off. I'm assuming only after a few more weeks of uncertainty and volatility the market will find a bottom. For now, it's the bears opportunity to gain ground.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 22

The Trend Average failed to hold and the bullish option (count/ascending triangle) posted in the past week have been invalidated. So this is now a good opportunity for bears to resume another leg of the sell off that started last month. I have this potentially larger bearish wave labeled as a C wave on the chart I first posted on Sept 18. If bears can gather strength,  we should see 1867 re-visited but ultimately I like 1820 or a bit lower around the 1780 level as a bottom. With that said, the micro-waves from the 2020 top looks like a zig zag so far, so the market must stay under the Trend Average to confirm bearish bias. If the market re-captures the trend, then it just means the market is not yet done going up for the B wave.

I was originally hoping to see the 2039/50 DMA level tested to start short positions but the market fell a bit short. So now I will just wait for a good entry point for longs, hopefully towards the bottom of this C wave.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.