Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 24

The selling continued earlier today and prices came within a few points of 1903. Looking at the wave structure, I moved the W3 or C to today's low to better reflect proportionality. So we could see another strong bearish wave if bulls are not able to clear 1950-1955 in the next sessions or two. I read Yellen just said there will be a rate increase this year so we'll see how the market takes it tomorrow.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 23

The short term trend has now turned bearish and it looks like recent lows are likely to be challenged. The deadline to fund the government is Oct 1st and given the threat by the most conservative side of the Republican party to shut down government unless it gets its way might create the ideal backdrop for a strong sell off. I'm assuming only after a few more weeks of uncertainty and volatility the market will find a bottom. For now, it's the bears opportunity to gain ground.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 22

The Trend Average failed to hold and the bullish option (count/ascending triangle) posted in the past week have been invalidated. So this is now a good opportunity for bears to resume another leg of the sell off that started last month. I have this potentially larger bearish wave labeled as a C wave on the chart I first posted on Sept 18. If bears can gather strength,  we should see 1867 re-visited but ultimately I like 1820 or a bit lower around the 1780 level as a bottom. With that said, the micro-waves from the 2020 top looks like a zig zag so far, so the market must stay under the Trend Average to confirm bearish bias. If the market re-captures the trend, then it just means the market is not yet done going up for the B wave.

I was originally hoping to see the 2039/50 DMA level tested to start short positions but the market fell a bit short. So now I will just wait for a good entry point for longs, hopefully towards the bottom of this C wave.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 19

The market managed to make a mild bounce today and ended up closing right on the Trend Average. It's hard to say what is the next move but as long as prices stay above the TA the bias is to the upside. However, if bulls fail to gather momentum in the next session or two then I favor downside as the major trends are still clearly bearish. Also, September and October are historically bearish months and this is the chance for bears to gain some ground, specially since a government shutdown drama is coming up.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 18

The market has reversed all its recent gains and now finds itself under the Trend Average. Technically speaking the market still has a bullish bias until a lower low is made but the overall structure from the 1867 low looks corrective. Therefore, whether the market has enough strength to reach the 50 DMA or not, the result is the same. So we could see a C (red) wave evolve next week or after another higher high is made that will go back to the 1820-1900 area to possibly end the larger correction. As it is, the C wave (blue) is just 6 points shorter than the A wave so the the bounce has advanced enough to be over.  I am looking to short as close as possible to the 50 DMA or to go long after the C wave is done.

Have a great (last summer) weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 17

So the Feds decided the kick the can down the road again and it looks now like there won't be a rate until 2016. The markets rallied and broke resistance as expected but gains were reversed by the end of the day. Going by the Ascending Triangle pattern and the count posted, the reversal is a correction and the bias continues to be up. Bulls now have the excuse to rally so we'll see if the 2039/50 DMA test comes in the next few sessions. The NASDAQ tested its 50 DMA today, so maybe the rest of the indexes will be doing the same.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 16

The market closed right above resistance and the pattern now favors strong upside. Obviously, this will all depend on the Fed's decision on rates and a market friendly announcement will give bulls the excuse to rally. But even if there was a rally, we have to keep in mind that this would be just part of a test of the 50 DMA and technically speaking there's not much to be excited about. The market is not out of the woods until 2039+ is re-captured in the short term. The ideal wave scenario would be a test of the 50DMA or 2039 and then a move to a lower low to end the LT W4 wave towards the end of the year or early next.

If the Feds raise rates tomorrow, it will be the first time in 9 years! How this will eventually affect housing, financial assets, and consumption will be interesting after such long time. Personally, I think a recession is probably coming a year or two after the first rate hike given the current length of the economic cycle (the official number is 11 to 33 months). Which in itself is not bad as this is how healthy economies grow. Plus, it allows people to buy houses and other assets cheaper.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.