Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 19

The market managed to make a mild bounce today and ended up closing right on the Trend Average. It's hard to say what is the next move but as long as prices stay above the TA the bias is to the upside. However, if bulls fail to gather momentum in the next session or two then I favor downside as the major trends are still clearly bearish. Also, September and October are historically bearish months and this is the chance for bears to gain some ground, specially since a government shutdown drama is coming up.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 18

The market has reversed all its recent gains and now finds itself under the Trend Average. Technically speaking the market still has a bullish bias until a lower low is made but the overall structure from the 1867 low looks corrective. Therefore, whether the market has enough strength to reach the 50 DMA or not, the result is the same. So we could see a C (red) wave evolve next week or after another higher high is made that will go back to the 1820-1900 area to possibly end the larger correction. As it is, the C wave (blue) is just 6 points shorter than the A wave so the the bounce has advanced enough to be over.  I am looking to short as close as possible to the 50 DMA or to go long after the C wave is done.

Have a great (last summer) weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 17

So the Feds decided the kick the can down the road again and it looks now like there won't be a rate until 2016. The markets rallied and broke resistance as expected but gains were reversed by the end of the day. Going by the Ascending Triangle pattern and the count posted, the reversal is a correction and the bias continues to be up. Bulls now have the excuse to rally so we'll see if the 2039/50 DMA test comes in the next few sessions. The NASDAQ tested its 50 DMA today, so maybe the rest of the indexes will be doing the same.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 16

The market closed right above resistance and the pattern now favors strong upside. Obviously, this will all depend on the Fed's decision on rates and a market friendly announcement will give bulls the excuse to rally. But even if there was a rally, we have to keep in mind that this would be just part of a test of the 50 DMA and technically speaking there's not much to be excited about. The market is not out of the woods until 2039+ is re-captured in the short term. The ideal wave scenario would be a test of the 50DMA or 2039 and then a move to a lower low to end the LT W4 wave towards the end of the year or early next.

If the Feds raise rates tomorrow, it will be the first time in 9 years! How this will eventually affect housing, financial assets, and consumption will be interesting after such long time. Personally, I think a recession is probably coming a year or two after the first rate hike given the current length of the economic cycle (the official number is 11 to 33 months). Which in itself is not bad as this is how healthy economies grow. Plus, it allows people to buy houses and other assets cheaper.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 15

The 1993 resistance area is being challenged again after a series of higher lows, which is generally a bullish pattern. Also, there is an Ascending Triangle forming that targets 2083 but I don't normally see this pattern near the bottom (it's usually on the W4 position). Then again this is really the first down-trending market I've charted since the beginning of this blog, so this is a learning experience for me. The key to the next move is in Yellen's hands, so we'll just have to wait and see how she manages to raise rates while keeping markets calm. My guess is a 0.25% rate hike with further hikes depending on data for the rest of the year, that should keep everyone happy.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 14

The market didn't do much today as the focus seems to be the Fed's decision on rates. I think the main question at this point is how much of a rate hike the market has already priced in. A decision not to raise rates would ignite a rally for sure but that looks unlikely. Perhaps they will raise rates but leave further rate hikes on hold? I assume the market would rally on that but it remains to be seen. The major trends remain bearish with only the short term trend favoring a higher high.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 11

Not much to add today as the outlook remains the same as yesterday. Seems like the market has wants wait for the Fed meeting to make the next move. My assumption is a rate hike is already priced in, so if they raise rates as expected then there should be some relief rally before heading back down. However, if for some reason the Fed holds on rates, then that will be an excuse for a substantial rally that might even end up reversing the long term bearish trend. Maybe they'll issue some "data dependent" statement again and keep markets guessing.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.