Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 14

The market didn't do much today as the focus seems to be the Fed's decision on rates. I think the main question at this point is how much of a rate hike the market has already priced in. A decision not to raise rates would ignite a rally for sure but that looks unlikely. Perhaps they will raise rates but leave further rate hikes on hold? I assume the market would rally on that but it remains to be seen. The major trends remain bearish with only the short term trend favoring a higher high.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 11

Not much to add today as the outlook remains the same as yesterday. Seems like the market has wants wait for the Fed meeting to make the next move. My assumption is a rate hike is already priced in, so if they raise rates as expected then there should be some relief rally before heading back down. However, if for some reason the Fed holds on rates, then that will be an excuse for a substantial rally that might even end up reversing the long term bearish trend. Maybe they'll issue some "data dependent" statement again and keep markets guessing.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 10

The count posted is holding so far but we would need to see a rally starting tomorrow to confirm it. Technically speaking there is room for one more bearish wave(as long as it stays above 1937) and still maintain a bullish bias. But I'll go with the most bullish option considering the Trend Average has finally turned positive and there is a new bullish MACD cross on the daily time frame. If China and Oil cooperate, we should see 1993 challenged or broken in the next few sessions.

I am waiting for a lower risk-high reward set up to trade again. So I'm good with either a sell off or a rally.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 9

The market challenged the 1993 resistance today but reversed gains after the sell off in oil. The markets I mentioned yesterday, the RUT and the NASDAQ have technically broken to the upside so despite the selling today, odds now favor further upside after consolidation. I think the main question is whether the sell off will continue once the 50 DMA is challenged.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 8

Hope everyone had a good weekend. Today we saw the strong rally I posted about on Friday and this could be the beginning stages of a larger wave to the 50 DMA or 2039 (whichever comes first).  Confirmation will come when 1993 breaks on the SP500 but the NASDAQ and the RUT might break out first and give us clues as they are leading the rally. Obviously, there is possibility of a breakdown below 1903 but as I said last week, as long as China and Oil are stable, we could see a rally up to the Fed decision on rates.

I ended up selling the China position I bought on Friday at the open as the ETF was pricing a rally to 3300's (closed at 3170).  So that was a quick and easy 10% on this position. Given how much bearish news there are on China right now, I now lean towards calling the correction over as long as 2,850 holds. How this affects the US is anyone's guess. If I am correct, there is going to be a rally past the high this year in the next few months and maybe I can finally call myself retired :)

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 4

The bearish wave today eliminated the micro-count on the chart and it looks better now as an ABC correction from the 1993 high. We could see a strong rally starting next week as long as the recent 1903 low holds. If selling resumes and support levels are breached then entire bounce from 1867 to 1993 will likely be a B wave and a test of 1820 will be very likely on a C wave. I don't think there will be any more important data releases until the FOMC meeting, so the market will have to digest what is already out there and price in whatever the market thinks will come next. That's assuming China and oil will see less volatility in the next couple of weeks.

I bought the China position I sold last week as the market today was pricing a sub-3000 sell off (4% less than last closing), so hopefully I'll sell it again for a profit next week.

Have a great holiday weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 3

The market seems to be following the count posted but there needs to be a stronger bullish wave in the next session or two to confirm. Perhaps the jobs report tomorrow will serve as a catalyst to move the market. A strong jobs report will increase the likelihood of a rate hike, while a weaker one will give bulls some hope.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bearish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.