Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 10

The market has rallied as expected and this could be a bullish W1 going by the current count. As I posted last week, the market is free to go for a new all time high after the correction. However, the imminent death cross in the DJIA will take a monumental bullish effort at this point. The DJIA has not seen a death cross since 2011 and this could be a signal of a major trend change in the broader market. Obviously, this signal could get whipsawed as any other market average signal. However, probabilities are on the high side there will be lower lows to come in the industrial index and my assumption is the SP500 will eventually be dragged by it. Whether this correction period turns into a bear market is another question but given the relentless uptrend for the past few years and the fact that waves are nearly complete, perhaps LT W4 is finally here.

Lastly, here's an article I just read that picks up on the notion that industrials will drag down the entire market.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johntobey/2015/08/10/bear-market-probability-just-increased

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 7

The market seems to have completed a 5 wave count to a lower low at 2067, which is just barely above the critical 2064 level. The wave count on the SP500 continues to point to more upside ahead but the situation in the DJIA paints a completely different picture and it is starting to look doubtful the technology sector will be able to maintain its most recent bullish momentum. In all, market trends are proving to be more accurate in predicting direction and a breach of 2064 will solidify the bearish trend. Which brings up the possibility of a recession, if you believe the stock market is a predictor of recessions.

"Should a recession come during Obama's last year, Jeb Bush will be the new President imo."

Which I posted last year (Before Jeb Bush announced I might add) . And looking at the debate from last night, I think J Bush has a good chance of pulling it off as he seemed experienced and Presidential. Most of the other candidates seemed competent but not all looked electable. I think in order for the GOP to win, they have to have a nominee who will appeal to the center and independents. I for one, can not vote for someone like Hilary because I don't like her economic beliefs or her populist talk. At the same time, I can't vote for a right wing nut whose priority is to move the US embassy to Jerusalem on his first day as President (how is that of any national interest is beyond me). So here are my impressions from last nights debate, which is the first time I've heard any of them talk with the exception of motor mouth.

Huckabee - Decent man, great closing, has specific plans but probably too socially conservative to get my vote
Ted Cruz - Foaming-at-the-mouth right wing nut
Rubio- Strong closing, looks too young, has a bad record of personal finances
John Kasich - Strong closing, sounds decent, has a shot
Ben Carson - First Doctor to separate co-joined twins at the head, not as bad as the leftist media paints him to be
Gov Christie - I like this guy but need to research more
Rand Paul - I actually agree with him on a lot of things, probably more than everyone else but he doesn't look like he can win
Scott Walker - Competent, looks young, not sure he has enough experience
Jeb Bush - If he is more like his dad than his brother, I'd probably vote for him. Admitting the war in Iraq was a mistake is a step in the right direction
Trump - Opportunistic, manipulative, megalomaniac. If the GOP loses 2016 it will be thanks to this man, who interestingly enough was a lifelong democrat up until 2010.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 6

The market sold off today and found a bottom at the 2072-2084 support range, which is not all that unexpected given the wave structure. Had the first wave from the correction been a clear 5 wave count, today's sell off would have been labeled a bearish W3. But since we had a zig zag on the first bearish leg, this whole correction is looking like a double zig zag so far and would imply a bullish rally as soon as tomorrow. Now, going by trends alone, the markets have deteriorated considerably since the correction in May started and we should see a death cross in the DJIA in the next couple of sessions. The implication is a significant top is now likely in the DJIA and the SP500 is looking like it is headed the same way, so if the SP500 is going to make a new high, we will need to see strong momentum to reverse all the recent bearish damage. This is a good  example of waves vs trends and we should see the conclusive outcome in the next week or two. Personally, I think it's time for the LT W3 to top, question is do we get one more high or not.

Lastly, we might see the next President of the US at the debate tonight so I am tuning in. I think Jerry Springer should have been to host tonight since Trump will be involved. I highly doubt Trump will be in the White House anytime soon but I've learned not to underestimate general stupidity..

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 5

The market had a strong opening today that challenged its most recent high before losing most of its gains the rest of the day. Looking at the waves, the market could be continuing its correction or this is part of a nested bullish 1-2. Seems like the weaker ADP jobs report is being interpreted as a sign that the Fed will not be raising interest rates soon, so the guessing game continues.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 4

The market has continued its correction with today's negative close and we could see another down leg tomorrow if this a double ZZ. The market has been stuck in this range for much of the year but I think we will finally see a strong move either way in the next few weeks. So far, this has been the most uneventful year for the SP500 since 2004. Either the SP500 is pulled by tech to the upside or is dragged down by industrials (which has a very bearish looking H&S).

Lastly, it looks like the low for oil will be re-tested soon so I might do a short term trade when it gets there.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 3

As expected, the market continued its correction and it seems like a zig zag bottomed at 2087. It's still too early to tell if this will turn into a double zz or will start rallying to new highs but I assume we will find out in the next few sessions. Also, with today's close the Trend Average goes bearish but considering the 5 count and the zig zag so far, it looks like the signal will be reversed soon. Lastly, the sell off in oil continues to affect the energy sector which in turn drags the DJIA. A death cross on that index is imminent at this point and it will be interesting to see how the broader market deals with this as I don't think I've seen major indexes diverge in a very long time.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 31

The 5 count on the charts seems to have been completed today at 2014 resistance and now we should see a retrace of the entire structure, so the correction is free to correct as much as it wants as long as 2064 does not get breached. If this completed 5 count is a W1, then we can expect the IHS target to be met at the end of the entire impulse. Also, I found a long term chart I had posted in December 2014 and this move might be the end of the LT W3.  Note prices have been falling out of the long term channel and combined with the weakness in industrials, we might just finally see the end of the bull run that started back in 2012.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.