Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 1

The market continued its bounce as expected but I'm not certain there is enough momentum to reach the TA just yet. Anything less than a bullish W3 tomorrow will end up with the most recent low or the 200 DMA being tested, which in turn might lead to further selling. Looking at some oscillators, this market has already been in a correction for 6 weeks and it is at a point where it could start a substantial rally. So while trends are bearish and further downside can be expected , it's good to keep in mind we could see a substantial bullish turn because technical oscillators have been reset.

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Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 30

The 200 DMA got very close to be being tested today and I see a bottoming pattern in place (as long as 2,056 does not get breached), so we could start seeing a counter rally to test the TA starting tomorrow. Greece continues to dominate headlines but I think the market is starting to accept the outcome after the initial shock reaction. And if the Greeks can somehow pull something out of nowhere and get more time then that will be the perfect excuse to resume the rally. This market might or might not pull back 10% but one thing that seems likely to me is the long term rally will continue to go on until the next recession (and Greece will not be the cause of it).

Lastly, China seems to have found a bottom (it rallied 9% from yesterday's lows). If buyers start piling in now, then that market should reach a new high later in July or August and then I can finally start locking in profits. The good thing about the Chinese market now is that it trades completely on momentum, which favors the wave counting approach.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 29

Greece's decision to go into default had a strong impact on markets around the world. I think up until later last week the consensus was Greece and the EU were going to reach a deal and markets reflected that. This event is in a way unexpected and this is why all the bullish signs from last week have now been reversed. Elliott Wave counts and technical analysis have their limitations imo, one of them being not being able to predict actual events. So now that the market has reversed course, the Head and Shoulder's like formation is in play and is targeting 2010. Sell in May has again proven to be the best thing to do. I sold my oil position at a loss and keeping only my long term positions in China.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 26

The market had one more bearish wave left in it and it seems like this wave structure bottomed today at 2095. Other than that, there's not much to add as my expectations are the same as yesterday. Perhaps the Greeks will give in to EU demands over the weekend and create the catalyst for the expected rally. Technically speaking, Greeks are sort of screwed either way. If they don't do what the EU wants, then they will have no option but cut back on spending since they won't have enough money to fund all the things they want and people will be paid in Dracmas instead of Euros (guaranteed devaluation). At the same time, if they agree to EU terms (which is to cut back spending), they will be getting more money so they can keep paying loans. Good times have a price and now is time to pay unfortunately.

The other news that concerns me more tis the plunge in China shares. Unfortunately, I didn't get the H&S I was hoping for and instead I am seeing a potential 1 wave correction or worst yet a zig zag to test its 200 DMA. Whichever the case, its hard to see your account go down substantially in 1 day but considering this was all expected, it's technically not that big of a deal. I just hope I can get to my retirement goal by the end of this year. As it is, the SSEC is a year ahead of my break out projections.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 25

The market has completed a bearish 5 wave count today and we should see an attempt to rally as soon as tomorrow. Whether there is a counter-rally or an impulsive rally to new all time highs remains to be seen. Also, the markets closed under the TA and the 50 DMA today but I continue to expect to a challenge to all time highs after the correction is over.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 24

The market continued its correction today to test the Trend Average and I'm expecting a challenge to all time highs in the next few sessions. The news of Greece and the EU not reaching a deal doesn't seem to have damaged sentiment much, but we'll see if there is further reaction tomorrow. The NASDAQ opened today at an all time high before reversing and small caps reached an all time high yesterday, so I'm assuming the broader market will join the rally soon.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 23

The market continued its "correction" today and it now looks like we will see new all time highs as soon as this week. Also, all trends are now back to green and oscillators have reset enough for a new rally. Still, there is the bearish topping pattern in place but it is not looking very favorable given current sentiment in the markets. I read today that it's been over 1350 days since the SP500 has experienced a 10% correction and it seems the only way this market will finally correct 10% is when we get the next recession.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish