Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 19

The market pulled back as expected today and we should see a decisive move in the next few sessions that will set market direction for the rest of the summer. Again, the 2120-2125 level offers strong resistance and if bulls can clear that then we should see a rally for few weeks. But if that level holds and the market goes back under the Trend Average, we should see a test of the 200 DMA (2050) at a minimum. Bullish factors to consider going into the weekend is the new daily MACD cross and the fact the TA turned bullish today.

The Greece situation could provide a catalyst to investor sentiment in the next few weeks. Also, China is making a correction already so maybe that could affect sentiment as well? I am holding on to all my positions and considering a position trade on my China shares. I am tempted to switch my China A shares for HK traded H shares, which are substantially undervalued. At this point the best possible outcome is an H&S formation in China so I can exit on the right shoulder and then buy back 15-20% lower. I made it as close as 91% to my retirement goal but now I'm back to 80%. I'm hoping I can get this done by this year, we'll see.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 18

The market is now challenging the 2120-2125 resistance level as I had been expecting and it is  crucial for bulls to make their case or risk substantial downside. The pattern I put up a few days ago is in play, so we'll just have to wait and see what is the bearish response. I am assuming the TA will be tested but if prices fall well below the TA then we will see 2072 tested again. With that said, the daily MACD is making a bullish cross and the TA is now back to green so oscillators and trends are favoring bulls but patterns favors further downside as long as the H&S like pattern doesn't get invalidated. I ended up buying back the VXX I sold a few weeks ago so hopefully it will do better this time.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 17

The market reacted somewhat positively to the statement by the Feds on interest rates and was able to climb above the TA. However, the 50 DMA is still holding (2104) and unless this is a bullish 1-2 set up, the wave pattern favors renewed selling soon. The 2120-2125 area still looks like a good area for the rally to stop but I'm not so sure there is enough momentum to get there.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 16

The market rallied today as expected but we might start seeing weakness again now that the Trend Average was tested. The next couple of waves should gives us a sense of direction for the rest of the month and it comes down to how the next levels of resistance hold. Given how weak market momentum has been this year, a good correction would actually help the bullish case in the long run. There are lots of buyers on the sidelines just waiting for the market to go on "sale", the market just needs a doze of pessimism.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 15

We had a substantial sell off early morning that ended up testing the 2072 low thanks to the ongoing Greek debt negotiations. However, the wave managed to put a higher low so technically speaking we can still expect a wave to challenge the 2120-2125 level. Looking at the pattern on a longer time frame, I see a topping pattern in place that could send prices to sub-2000. If bulls can manage to make a new high from here then the pattern would be eliminated but the pressure is now back on the bulls. Given the fact that it is summer time, it shouldn't come as a surprise if we see further downside ahead after a bounce. "Sell in May" has proven to be a good strategy so far again. Last but not least, the medium term trend and the short term trend are now solid red.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 12

The market retraced about half of its gains as expected and my assumption is a new bullish wave will come to challenge the 2120-2125 area next week. As I said yesterday, what happens at that level will be critical for the market. The SP500 has not done much this first half of the year and perhaps what happens in the next few weeks will point to the overall direction of the market for the rest of the year. I think a bigger correction would be healthy for the market given how long the LT trend has been bullish for (3+ years) but maybe it will go longer.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 11

The bounce wave followed the micro-count posted yesterday and made a higher high today, managing to turn the short term trend positive for the first time in weeks. My assumption is this bullish wave will be retraced and another bullish wave will come to challenge the 2120-2125 resistance area. What happens at that point will probably define the rest of the summer as that level could form the right shoulder of a bigger H&S with a target of well under the 200 DMA. If bulls manage to break through that resistance level then we should see a good rally to new all time highs.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.