Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 10

The market rallied today towards the Trend Average and the 50 DMA as expected. Given the strength of the rally and the almost 3 weeks of selling, we could be seeing the beginning of a new rally to new highs or another rally to elevate prices and then sell off again to form a flat. The market is up just 1% this year vs 7% for the same period last year. So one could argue the market is either topping or buying time to rally in the second half of the year. The pressure remains on the bulls to make new highs and to turn all major trends to the bullish side. Failure to turn the TA positive will likely result in lower lows.

I ended buying oil again because of its pattern and I am still hoping for the rally in China to continue. The MSCI decided to include China shares in its benchmark in the near future but not immediately, so the next few days could be interesting. To me, China remains a no brainer so whether it gets to my target this month or next year it doesn't matter as I'm confident that market will eventually get there.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 9

The market made a lower low as expected before attempting a bounce in the morning. I see a bottoming pattern in place and we should see the Trend Average and the 50 DMA tested on this coming counter-rally as long as 2072 holds. My assumption is the correction will continue once the counter-rally is over as long as the market stays below the TA. Last but not least, the medium term trend is about to go bearish if the market fails to close above 2100 in the next few sessions.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 8

Waves were pointing to a counter-rally today until 2085 broke. So despite the fact these bearish waves lack an impulsive look to them, the fact is the market remains under the Trend Average and the 50 DMA. The next levels of support at 2067 and 2039 and the pressure is now on the bulls to reverse losses or risk seeing selling accelerate.

I am now just 10% away from my goal and tomorrow might be the day that will seal the deal for me. Tomorrow the MSCI will decide whether or not to include China A share in its tracking index, if they give a favorable view then China could easily rally another 10%. If they don't, I'll just be patient.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 5

The market attempted to break the 2085 support level I've been mentioning for a while but it failed to do so. And given the fact that it has taken 2 weeks for bears to reach this level, my assumption is there is a good chance a new rally coming to new all time highs. The trend continues to be bearish and we still could see support levels break next week, but given the all the zig zag waves and 2085 holding, maybe "Sell in May" will not last long this year.

I closed my VXX positions and now I'm just long China, which looks like it is breaking out. Maybe another global bullish period is coming in the next few weeks?

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.
 

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 4

The 50 DMA finally broke today after almost 2 weeks of bearish hesitation. However, there is a significant possibility this wave is just a C and unless the next level of support at 2085 breaks convincingly, we could see a new rally take place to another all time high. If the top is confirmed with follow through selling, we can then start working on possible downside targets. I am holding to my hedge but I'm closing it if selling doesn't accelerate. Also, I am hoping China will break out in the next few sessions after yesterday's 5% intraday dive that was erased in couple of hours.

This is my micro-count for China. I'm hoping a bullish 3rd materializes in the next few sessions and if I am right on this, there should be about a 14% upside, which will get me to my goal.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 3

The market failed to follow through on selling today and instead broke out of the descending trendline on the chart. While the short term trend continues to be bearish, these zig zagging waves are pointing to a correction of the larger bullish trend. So unless support breaks in the next bearish wave, chances are the markets are going to stage a rally to new all time highs. Fundamentally speaking, the focus is now on Greece and perhaps that will be the excuse the market will use to make a decisive move.

I am tempted to close my losing VXX position, specially if the 50 DMA holds on the next move. At least my China shares look like they are about to stage another break out, a 10-15% rise and I'm going to start locking in profits. That rally is probably not even half way done but it won't hurt to start position trading.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - June 2

The market sold off early morning as anticipated but the 50 DMA provided support for a substantial bounce. So far the last two attempts have not been able to break the 50 DMA and that in itself is not a good sign for bears. Also, the waves in the past few days don't have an impulsive look so we could be seeing more of a time/sideways correction before we see a break out to the upside. Still, the trend continues to be bearish and could see a Descending Triangle (which we haven't seen in ages), so the bias continues to be bearish but we need to see follow through selling pronto.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.