Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 8

The market gapped up and went right thru the 50 DMA and the TA after the jobs reports was announced, adding more confusion to the overall direction of the market. Despite of this, a new high needs to be made to negate the damage from the sell off earlier in the week. Also, the factors I mentioned yesterday remain so as I said a few days ago, whether a new high is coming or not, my feeling is the market is going to take a break sooner rather than later. I am keeping the VXX I bought yesterday for a while.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 7

The market bounced today as expected and found resistance at the 50 DMA. If the market doesn't overcome the 2,100 level, there's a good chance it will be headed towards a test of 2039. And if that level finally breaks, then we'll finally see a good correction that will last several weeks or even months. Indexes around the world are starting to sell off and that supports a correction here in the US. Lastly, oil looks like it has topped and that will also help the bearish case. Maybe we'll finally see some panic selling!

I bought back VXX at the test of 50 DMA and looking to buy oil as well if we see a good sell off.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 6

The IHS pattern was invalidated today with the break of 2077 and now the market is back to bearish mode again. Unless there is one more zig zag left for yet another bullish run, my feeling is the market has started to roll over. The level that confirms the market has topped is 2039.69, which is the March low. This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone on here as we are in May and the market needs to sell off to bring some fear back, which in turn will create good opportunities to get long when pessimism is at is max.

I am looking to buy back VXX on the rebound to test the TA and hopefully this time I'll keep it for a while.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 5

The correction to the TA started today as expected but it went down deeper than I had anticipated by breaking below initial resistance and all the way down to 2090, which is 50 DMA support. The IHS might not look as good but it is still valid. So if the market intends to go for a new high,  we should see bulls take control tomorrow. Trade below 2077.59 will eliminate the bullish bias and even signal the start of a summer correction.

I sold my VXX at break even as planned and took profits from oil, which reached my initial $61 target when it first broke out. Not sure if the rally in oil will continue or take a break but a test of its 50 DMA looks like a good place to go long again. Oil prices are a perfect example of how markets price the future while most analysts keep forecasting with old data. Another commodity that looks like it has finally hit bottom is Natural Gas, so I'll give it a shot on the correction.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 4

The market managed to follow through on its Friday rally and it looks like it is setting up another Inverse Head and Shoulders that targets 2,141. Ideally, we will see a retrace to test the Trend Average or the low 2100's and then see the start of a bullish W3 from there. The TA was whipsawed for the first time in several months, so the signal is now back to bullish. I am keeping all my positions from last week but will sell VXX on the retrace, unless support levels break.

 Also, I wanted to share this graph on seasonality. I think this is the ideal time to start a correction, so perhaps one more push and then we'll finally see some real selling,

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 1

The market rallied back to re-capture the Trend Average in a fairly strong rally. The absence of a lower low below the 2072 level keeps the uptrend intact, so we could see another challenge to all time highs after a correction next week. The Trend Average is being challenged and might be whipsawed early next week. With that said, we are now in May and the market seems to be lacking momentum despite strength in oil and a weaker dollar. Perhaps, it's about time for a decent correction after a relentless 3+ year rally.  I am keeping oil, added back VXX to hedge and looking to probably add natural gas in the near future.

Last but not least, my prediction for the fight tomorrow. I've been waiting for years for this fight and almost went to Vegas to see it (and bet on it) but just couldn't make time for it. Tomorrow is going to be about speed and whoever can impose his speed will win this fight.  From looking at their fights, I think Pacquiao is faster and he will unleash a barrage on punches on FM. Whether FM can duck those punches (specially Paquiao's left hand) and counter punch is the big question. Still, I think Pacquiao will finish ahead in compubox stats and technically win the fight, whether or not they'll give him a decision in Las Vegas is another question.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 30

The market sold off and closed significantly below the Trend Average, turning the signal bearish in one shot. It's hard to say the uptrend is over until 2072 gets breached so if this bearish structure stops here then there's a chance for the rally to continue. However, if 2072 doesn't hold then the market is probably done going up and we should expect lower lows to come, which would line up perfectly with the "Sell in May" scenario. A weak dollar and the ongoing rally in oil should help minimize the sell offs in stocks or even be used as an excuse to rally. I am still holding to oil and not planning to sell just yet, specially now that many traders are now covering shorts. Which to me is interesting, since I would have covered shorts couple of weeks ago when oil had an obvious bullish break out. I guess some traders are not technical at all.

http://www.bdlive.co.za/markets/2015/04/13/oil-surges-above-59-as-traders-cover-short-positions

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.