Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 30

The market sold off and closed significantly below the Trend Average, turning the signal bearish in one shot. It's hard to say the uptrend is over until 2072 gets breached so if this bearish structure stops here then there's a chance for the rally to continue. However, if 2072 doesn't hold then the market is probably done going up and we should expect lower lows to come, which would line up perfectly with the "Sell in May" scenario. A weak dollar and the ongoing rally in oil should help minimize the sell offs in stocks or even be used as an excuse to rally. I am still holding to oil and not planning to sell just yet, specially now that many traders are now covering shorts. Which to me is interesting, since I would have covered shorts couple of weeks ago when oil had an obvious bullish break out. I guess some traders are not technical at all.

http://www.bdlive.co.za/markets/2015/04/13/oil-surges-above-59-as-traders-cover-short-positions

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 29

I mentioned yesterday a good GDP report would help the stocks rally, instead GDP came unexpectedly below estimates and the market closed right on the Trend Average at 2106. If the Fed wasn't in the picture, the market would be discounting the risk of an earnings slowdown. But since these are exceptional times, everyone is going to guess what the Fed will do with raising interest rates. So, one could argue a slowdown in an economy is actually good for equities. It's crazy, but that's the world we live in now.

Also, oil is pushing $60 and that should help the energy sector of the market. I am keeping my oil shares until I see sign of a top, for now it wants to go over $60 and probably test its 200 DMA. Lastly, I am keeping an eye on Natural Gas which might start a counter rally as well after a brutal sell off for the last year.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 28

The market went under the Trend Average briefly early morning before rallying back to end the day positive. I suspect there will be a new bullish wave coming to new all time highs in the next session or two as long as the TA holds up. Earnings are favorable overall, so the market needs to price in continued momentum towards the end of the year. The GDP report tomorrow will help the bullish case if the report meets or exceeds expectations.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 27

The market made another all time high today as expected but the wave fell couple of points short of the ascending triangle target. The wave count is not exactly the best looking but it is still technically viable, so my assumption is we are seeing a mild correction before new all time highs. Also, the bullish momentum in tech should help overall sentiment. Perhaps, we will see a high in May and then finally see a proper correction (as in 10%).

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 24

The market made a marginally higher high today and it looks like new highs will be coming early next week as well. There's an ascending triangle that targets 2128, so perhaps we'll get a solid break out early next week.  The NASDAQ also made a substantially higher closing high, thanks in part to Amazon which rallied 14% after their announcement yesterday. So sentiment going into the weekend is bullish and will continue to be bullish next week.

Now, speaking of Amazon. This is one of the very few companies I would be comfortable holding long term if it ever goes down. Despite the fact that they don't seem to announce profits much, they are technically very profitable but keep investing money in growing revenue. And on that benchmark, Amazon is a behemoth at $90 billion per year. Apple which is almost 4x as expensive going by market cap, grosses $200 billion. Eventually we will see profit margins at AMZN approach those of major tech companies and its stock could easily double or triple from today's close. So if there's ever another big crash, this one will be on my shopping list.

Lastly, I wanted to share the following graph which I found interesting. This is from an article on forward PE (not to be mistaken for trailing PE) and historical returns. Going by this, history is definitely not on the bearish side.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 23

The SP500 finally broke resistance and was able to reach a new all time high. Also, the NASDAQ closed at an all time high, 15 years after the dot com bubble. Now that bulls are back in control, I expect new all time highs before another substantial correction. Hard to say if the market can build up enough momentum to reach 2,200 but the IHS target of 2,148 looks attainable. Also, oil seems to be resuming its rally and this provides support to the broader market. This is a market that doesn't really want to go down and despite opinions of this being a "bubble", the fact is that forward PE for the market is not unusually expensive at 17. I am sure there will be bigger corrections to come but until there are true signs of an economic slowdown, higher highs are almost a given.

I closed my VXX position at a loss and I'll buy back again if the IHS target is reached. I also added oil yesterday in after hours and I am expecting $60+ in the near future, in fact oil might even reach its 200 DMA trending down around $70.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 22

The market remains in a tight trading range. While the bias and the pattern is bullish, I need to see the 2011 level cleared to be confident of a sustained rally. Today is the fifth time this resistance level is tested in couples of weeks, so hopefully the market will make up its mind by the end of the week. I am continuing to hold VXX which basically looses money by the minute but if we get a bullish resolution, I can get rid of it and buy it back at the IHS target. The good thing is that my longs continue to do very well with all the mania in the Chinese market, I'm at 90% of my goal so I am getting very close. There is an immense opportunity now that it is going up and eventually when it crashes down.  The last time I saw this type of mania was in bitcoin couple of years ago, powered incidentally by the Chinese market.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.