Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 21

The market gapped up earlier in the morning today and came close to the 2011 level I mentioned yesterday before going back below 2100 and closing barely above the Trend Average. A triangle pattern looks to be in play and there should be a break out as soon as this week. There's also a good potential for an Inverse Head and Shoulders that targets 2148 and we'll see if there's enough left in the tank for bulls to start a rally as soon as tomorrow. As it is, I rather be on the defensive given the lower highs and the breach of the lows last week  so I'm holding on to my VXX until there's a decisive bullish move.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 20

The market bounced today as expected but until 2011.91 gets taken out, today's wave remains a counter-rally. I haven't tried labeling the intermediate waves to avoid confusion as the market continues to be in what seems like a triangle. But we should see a decisive move either way sooner than later. I am maintaining my position unless there are clear signs the market wants to break out of range.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 17

I wasn't expecting the market to sell off and break 2083 as it did today. But then again, the waves were looking suspicious because of lack of bullish momentum. Given this seemingly range-bound market, I suspect there's some sort of triangle at the intermediate level taking place which will end up breaking very soon. And considering the long term trend has been bullish for over 3 years and the bearish MACD cross on the monthly time frame, perhaps this is finally the time for the market to take a break and make a 10% correction if not a bit more. Strength in oil and general economic conditions (which IMO are fairly ok) will make any sell off in the stock market a consolidation phase before another sustained rally to new highs. So maybe "Sell in May" came couples of weeks sooner?

One of the causes for the sell off today was the curbing of margin trading in China, which in recent weeks has been going up like no tomorrow or 13% in 2 weeks to be exact. Just last month ago I was at 70% of my retirement goal, yesterday's close put me at 87% of my goal. The rise has been so fast, it has exceeded my own best expectations or any possible wave count (I'm actually in disbelief how fast this has happened). So maybe there will be a sell off there to consolidate before going much higher, which will coincide with a world wide correction period that includes Europe as well.

I ended up closing my oil position for a profit and bought back my VXX from last week. I expect a bounce early next week in stocks but I think it's time to start betting for another change of trend.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com



Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 16

The market didn't do much today other than reset some of its short term overbought oscillators. I broke down the recent bullish waves and they are 5 count waves, so my assumption is the market is consolidating before launching a stronger bullish wave as soon as tomorrow. The correction could continue but the downside limit is 2083.24, price action under support would indicate more selling ahead. But as I speculated a few days ago, the break out in oil is lending support to the market so continued strength in oil will help stocks reach new highs. And apparently, it's no longer speculation but one of current themes:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102592048

Obviously, higher oil prices is not better for our economy but Wall Street needs an excuse. Maybe we might just have another "Sell in May" event this year after there are no more excuses left to rally. Hopefully, I will be picking up the VXX I sold last week (which is down almost 10% from when I sold it already).

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Have a good weekend! 


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 15

The market gapped up and rallied as expected but it was not as strong of a movement as I had hoped. So, I am keeping the count on the chart but unless we see stronger follow through buying tomorrow, it will likely be something else. Oil was able to clear resistance at $54 and it seems to be in the middle of a break out, so if that continues tomorrow, equities could continue to use it as an excuse for more upside. The RUT made an all time high today and we should see the broader market follow, the question is which wave count will take it there.

I ended up buying oil at the break of resistance, so I missed considerable upside by selling couple of days ago. But it's ok considering I've made good money trading it already. Next time I will be more conservative in my position trades, I tend to be overly aggressive in taking profits.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Have a good weekend! 


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 14

The market made a lower low this morning before bouncing the rest of the day to close the day slightly positive. The wave count remains the same and if right, we should see a rally as soon as tomorrow. Considering oil has a decent chance of breaking out and the earnings reports, the market might have a good excuse for a strong rally. Alternatively, if the market goes for the 2074 support level, then we might see another correction but I don't think that's likely at this point.

I am kicking myself for selling all my oil yesterday as it rallied today. I just hope it will come down one more time so I don't miss the upside, if WTI $54 breaks then it should shoot up substantially.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Have a good weekend! 


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - April 13

The market made a higher high for the current wave structure at 2107 before starting a correction. If the labeling is correct, this pullback is part of a bullish nested 1-2, so we have to see a strong rally in the next session or two to confirm. Also, it's worth noting small caps made a new intra-day all time high and that might be a sign of what's about to come to the broader market.

I ended selling oil for a profit again and I'm hoping to buy it back at a test of support. It looks like oil wants to break out and the key will be support to keep holding pullbacks. I just hope I don't miss the break out by constantly position trading.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Have a good weekend! 


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw