Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 19

The market went into a correction expected and we could see a triangle form or a zig zag before going to an all time high challenge. Trade under 2081.41 would eliminate the bullish 5 wave count, so all is clear as long as support doesn't get breached. Also, it's worth noting the RUT already made substantial new all time highs yesterday and a little help from oil and the dollar could easily lift the broader market to new highs next week. I ended up buying some oil today given it's lower risk/reward set up for another tradeable bounce to its 50 DMA. Gold and Silver look promising as well, but I rather wait and buy on a pullback.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 18

"given the bullish pattern in place, it is likely the trend will go bullish as soon as tomorrow and see the all time high challenged in the next week or two"

As expected, the market rallied today after the Fed announcement and the Trend Average has turned bullish. It's hard to say if the all time highs will be challenged this week since we might see the market go into a W4 correction but higher highs are very likely, unless there's some bearish miracle. An ongoing rally in the US would be in synch with all the major markets around the world, which in a way would feed on itself given worldwide enthusiasm for stocks. But as usual, there will be another bearish excuse for yet another round of selling once enthusiasm dissipates, it happens like clockwork.

I ended up selling half of my Russian stocks to position trade and raised my stops to break even on the rest and I am leaving my Chinese stocks intact as they're going way up. Hopefully, I will buy some VXX when this rally ends later this month or April.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 17

The market found support at the 2065 level and it has a good chance of breaking the 2081-83 resistance tomorrow. Today's close was again above the Trend Average but it wasn't strong enough to turn the the TA bullish. However, given the bullish pattern in place, it is likely the trend will go bullish as soon as tomorrow and see the all time high challenged in the next week or two unless there's some sort of unexpected bad news. Focus has now turned to the Feds on rates and this might just provide fuel to yet another rally. But stock market aside, the fact rates are going to increase shows how long the country has come in its economic recovery. I remember in the darkest days of the financial crisis, people were preparing for the Great Depression but thanks to Feds, the worst never materialized. I don't think most people fully appreciate (or understand) how bad things could have turned out. And yes, I know some people are convinced we are headed towards economic disaster very soon, but imo rising rates means we're officially all clear. If anything, we might be in the middle of one of the longest expansions in economic history when looking at the world as a whole.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 16

"However, given the low for today was again the 2041 support level, there's a good chance there will be another attempt to test the TA early next week."

That higher low on Friday turned out to be a clue of what came today. The Trend Average was not only tested, but re-captured. While it's still too early to give the bulls the all clear, that 2041 level holding gives a bullish bias to the market. If we are going to see a deeper correction, support must break in the next few days or else the market will be making all time highs again. Markets around the world from China to Germany are hitting all time or multi-year highs, so it makes more sense the US joins the party during this period. Some people might worry about oil and dollar strength, but as I've been saying for months, they are just excuses (oil hit a multi-year low today at $42 and the dollar hit a multi-year high) as proven today.

I am holding to my Russian and Chinese stocks short term trades and added more China to my long term portfolio. Maybe I'll get a chance to short this time if the market goes for the ATH.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 13

The market headed down as expected but it fell short of testing its Trend Average. However, given the low for today was again the 2041 support level, there's a good chance there will be another attempt to test the TA early next week. What will happen then will probably dictate market direction for the rest of the month. Failure to turn the trend bullish will most likely result in lower lows, but a re-capture of the TA opens the chance for new all time highs as the market has corrected enough to build another base for another multi-week rally. Oil is testing its lows and might end up making lower lows, which will create new opportunities for a counter rally trade in oil related stocks.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 12

"The next support level is at 2041 and it looks like the bottom could be in today or tomorrow at the test of this level."

The market bounced as I had been expecting towards the 50 DMA and now there's a good chance the Trend Average will be tested as well. Assuming this is a counter-rally, we should see the market head down again once it hits resistance. But given the fact the reason for selling has been rather weak, we could see follow through buying and a trend change if the TA gets convincingly re-captured. I sold some of my China ETF that I had been holding since last year and replaced them with Russia. While Russia is probably nowhere near out of its economic crisis, stocks there are ridiculously cheap.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 11

The sell off continued today and tested the 2041 level I was expecting. Ideally, the bottom will be at this support level for wave proportionality purposes, but if this level breaks then we're looking at 2021 as the next stop. The ongoing bearish theme continues to be the strong dollar, which is getting closer to parity with the Euro and causing a sell off in gold and silver as well. But let's not forget this entire move was expected, so technically speaking there is nothing out of the ordinary.

From my Feb 21st post on gold on  http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

The downtrend has continued as expected and we should see 1186 tested fairly soon given the current trend. What will be interesting is whether gold will be aiming for the 1130 low from last year.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw