Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 12

"The next support level is at 2041 and it looks like the bottom could be in today or tomorrow at the test of this level."

The market bounced as I had been expecting towards the 50 DMA and now there's a good chance the Trend Average will be tested as well. Assuming this is a counter-rally, we should see the market head down again once it hits resistance. But given the fact the reason for selling has been rather weak, we could see follow through buying and a trend change if the TA gets convincingly re-captured. I sold some of my China ETF that I had been holding since last year and replaced them with Russia. While Russia is probably nowhere near out of its economic crisis, stocks there are ridiculously cheap.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 11

The sell off continued today and tested the 2041 level I was expecting. Ideally, the bottom will be at this support level for wave proportionality purposes, but if this level breaks then we're looking at 2021 as the next stop. The ongoing bearish theme continues to be the strong dollar, which is getting closer to parity with the Euro and causing a sell off in gold and silver as well. But let's not forget this entire move was expected, so technically speaking there is nothing out of the ordinary.

From my Feb 21st post on gold on  http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

The downtrend has continued as expected and we should see 1186 tested fairly soon given the current trend. What will be interesting is whether gold will be aiming for the 1130 low from last year.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 10

The market put in another bearish wave as expected and it broke through the 2056-62 support easily. The next support level is at 2041 and it looks like the bottom could be in today or tomorrow at the test of this level. Now, the counter rally should be interesting as this wave could turn out to be part of a zig zag. I expect the 50 DMA to be naturally challenged but 2072 and the top itself at 2120 could be targets. The Trend Average is now at 2091 and falling and most likely will be tested as well on the coming bounce, whether the TA can change to the bullish side it's another question. The theme of the moment is now dollar strength, but will that be enough to cause a panic sell off? I doubt it will but we'll see. I bought back the Russian ETF for the bounce.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 09

The market bounced today in what seems like a consolidating 4th wave and we should see the 50 DMA at 2062 tested if 2087 doesn't get breached. Once a lower low is made, we should see another counter rally that should give us an idea if this is part of a zig zag (bullish) or the beginning of a stronger correction that will be challenging the 200 DMA currently at the 2000 level. I guess it will depend on how the market decides to price the interest rake hike coming in the summer. 

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 06

The market broke 2085 support decisively, solidifying the bearish trend change. The next obvious target is the 50 DMA at 2062, which sits right on the next level of support at 2056-2062. So we'll see how this level holds early next week. Additionally, we have a rollover on the daily MACD which points to a bigger correction. Whether this pullback will be a sideways move like the last correction or one that goes for a 5-10% retracement will depend on how the market reacts at the 50 DMA and the 200 DMA levels.

I stopped out of my new Russian position when support was breached but looking to buy again at the next support level. Just too bad we didn't get an euphoric high to short and take advantage of this expected correction, maybe next time.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 05

The market did not sell off to verify the bearish count but it wasn't able to re-capture its Trend Average either. So the market is technically stuck between the 2085 support and 2103 resistance, and my guess whichever breaks first will likely point to where the trend is going in the next few days. The TA has now officially turn bearish since the number has started to drop, so I guess it will come down to the jobs report for a good excuse to move the market. I started long positions in Russia using 2085 as a level to monitor or stop out. I figure if oil continues to stabilize and Putin doesn't go too crazy, RSX will be tested its 200 DMA at around $20.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - March 04

The bearish pattern on the chart reached its target today by testing the 2085 support level. Also, the Trend Average is being challenged with today's close and unless we see a rally tomorrow that re-captures 2108 convincingly, we should see lower lows. With that said, the waves in the last few days look very corrective as they overlap each other. So the only bearish option for all these waves to make sense is a sell off tomorrow on a W3, anything short of that will likely point to these last 5 days as a correction and a new rally to new highs.

If we see a sell off, I will use the opportunity to buy more longs for my long term portfolio (maybe add some Russian positions?). But if we get that new high, I will short to hedge as I've been planning for the past few weeks.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw