Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 20

"The bottom line is bears had an opportunity to bring down the market in the past 4 weeks but prices are still above the 50 DMA. And now that oscillators have reset, odds favor sentiment swinging towards the bullish side."

It was just two weeks ago that I posted the statement above when the market started trading above its 50 DMA, and now we are seeing what bullish sentiment looks like with new all time highs in all major markets (post-bubble in the Nasdaq). Now, with that in mind, we know better because we are counting waves here. And it seems like the W4 was the quick bearish move early morning and now the market is working on its 5th wave towards 2150, assuming the 5th wave will be at least the length of the 1st wave. The cash market chart has the W1 at 2072 and W2 at 2041, but I favor the wave count that takes into consideration the pre-market action that had W1 at 2050. If we use pre-market prices, W3 looks like it started around in the 2025-2030 cash equivalent and the "look" of the entire structure from 1980 would make more sense. So, I continue to expect new all time highs continuing in the next week or two until the market finishes the count. Once all the buying exhausts, maybe the market will start paying more attention to Oil, Putin, or whatever "alarming" reason to correct once again and bring back a healthy doze of bearish hysteria once again.. works like clockwork!

I will definitely go short once the structure completes, just not sure if to hedge longs or to go net short on my trading portfolio. My longs in that portfolio have been there since October if I remember correctly and up quite a bit. Maybe I'll get me some VXX and make enough money to pay my 2014 tax bill.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 19

The market made a slight higher all time high today that could technically qualify as the (V) of W3. However, if 2102 is just the 1st wave of this (V), then I see target of 2120. It will depend of whether the market respects the 2090.79 low. Once the W3 is complete, we should see a stronger correction and perhaps one last rally towards 2150 to finish up the 5 wave count that started at 1980. If we get there, that's where I will start shorting to hedge or even take some profit and go net short on my trading account.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 18

The market started a minor correction as expected but it was so shallow that it raises the possibility of the W3 not being finished yet. So I am going to assume the top yesterday was just the 3 of W3, which allows for a 5 of W3 to yet another all time high.  And perhaps then we will then see the Trend Average tested, which is at 2076 and rising fast. Maybe this year we will see the "Sell in May" scenario again after reaching a substantial high in April or May, so far the waves are lining up. And don't forget that big Inverse Head and Shoulders targeting 2400 is still in place.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 17

The market has made new highs as expected, closing at a nice round number of 2,100. I see the W3 sub-division waves as completed, so I am assuming we will see a correction as soon as tomorrow for a W4. However, if euphoria is truly back, then we could see the market continue to go up slowly. Considering Greece and the EU failed to reach an agreement, the market is doing really well as news that would have caused a sell off a few weeks ago are now being ignored. And I hope the rally continues so I can short (to hedge) this properly when the waves are completed. For now, my longs are looking good and probably will break out again soon.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 13

I posted the following almost a month ago and this is now the 8-9th time that we get new highs after the indicators I follow flashed oversold.

"Every time the market has been this oversold, we have seen new all time highs in the past 2+ years and most recently in December. I don't remember how many times its been already but I think this is the 7-8th time the market has reached this oversold level since Feb 2012."

And like I said on the same post, I am sure a top will eventually come and bears will finally be right. But that's after attempting  to predict a top more than half a dozen times and possibly lose a lot of money trading against the trend. My point is, I know trending indicators will eventually fail because it is a lagging indicator. But odds far exceed attempts of calling a top by using fundamentals, orthodox Elliott Wave and other TA tools. In this case, the Trend Average has kept people who understand it on the right side of the trade for the last 3 years. That's one claim very few can make.

I haven't had time to read the news today as to "why" the market went up, but I'm guessing the excuse is oil, central banks or Russia. But those are just excuses, as I mentioned several days ago sentiment was going to favor bulls and that we could see a wave to new ATH this week. This bullish sentiment can easily turn into euphoria. Just imagine if Greece decided to stay in the EU, that'd be the excuse to run the market to 2150+.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 12

I mentioned yesterday that sentiment was now bullish and since the Greece negotiation was postponed, no news is good news for stocks. Had sentiment been bearish, we would have seen "uncertainty" headlines and a sell off. But this is a market that wants to go up after correcting for over a month. The NASDAQ made a post-bubble high and it looks like it's going for its all time high this year. So highs should be coming to all indexes very soon, possibly by tomorrow. The target for the bullish 5 count using cash prices is 2210. But since we had that issue with pre-market a week ago, the W1 label could be at 2050 and not 2072. So if we taken into account pre-market then a 5 count targets 2150.

My longs are doing pretty good and I will be looking to short to hedge once the 5 count ends or a bearish pattern appears. For now, it's time to enjoy the ride.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 11

The market continues to follow the possible bullish W3 count and it looks like the excuse will be the  Greece negotiations with the EU. I believe waves can predict sentiment but not actual political outcomes, so if Greece doesn't leave the EU we should see the W3 materialize. But if the Greeks decide to leave the EU, then I assume there will be some sort of pattern failure as I can't imagine the market rallying. For now, all trends are back to bullish. Also, oil continued to sell off today and its TA is at risk of turning bearish. But the stock market doesn't really care, I'm sure if we get a big equity rally then oil could be used as an excuse to correct again.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw