Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 18

The market started a minor correction as expected but it was so shallow that it raises the possibility of the W3 not being finished yet. So I am going to assume the top yesterday was just the 3 of W3, which allows for a 5 of W3 to yet another all time high.  And perhaps then we will then see the Trend Average tested, which is at 2076 and rising fast. Maybe this year we will see the "Sell in May" scenario again after reaching a substantial high in April or May, so far the waves are lining up. And don't forget that big Inverse Head and Shoulders targeting 2400 is still in place.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 17

The market has made new highs as expected, closing at a nice round number of 2,100. I see the W3 sub-division waves as completed, so I am assuming we will see a correction as soon as tomorrow for a W4. However, if euphoria is truly back, then we could see the market continue to go up slowly. Considering Greece and the EU failed to reach an agreement, the market is doing really well as news that would have caused a sell off a few weeks ago are now being ignored. And I hope the rally continues so I can short (to hedge) this properly when the waves are completed. For now, my longs are looking good and probably will break out again soon.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 13

I posted the following almost a month ago and this is now the 8-9th time that we get new highs after the indicators I follow flashed oversold.

"Every time the market has been this oversold, we have seen new all time highs in the past 2+ years and most recently in December. I don't remember how many times its been already but I think this is the 7-8th time the market has reached this oversold level since Feb 2012."

And like I said on the same post, I am sure a top will eventually come and bears will finally be right. But that's after attempting  to predict a top more than half a dozen times and possibly lose a lot of money trading against the trend. My point is, I know trending indicators will eventually fail because it is a lagging indicator. But odds far exceed attempts of calling a top by using fundamentals, orthodox Elliott Wave and other TA tools. In this case, the Trend Average has kept people who understand it on the right side of the trade for the last 3 years. That's one claim very few can make.

I haven't had time to read the news today as to "why" the market went up, but I'm guessing the excuse is oil, central banks or Russia. But those are just excuses, as I mentioned several days ago sentiment was going to favor bulls and that we could see a wave to new ATH this week. This bullish sentiment can easily turn into euphoria. Just imagine if Greece decided to stay in the EU, that'd be the excuse to run the market to 2150+.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 12

I mentioned yesterday that sentiment was now bullish and since the Greece negotiation was postponed, no news is good news for stocks. Had sentiment been bearish, we would have seen "uncertainty" headlines and a sell off. But this is a market that wants to go up after correcting for over a month. The NASDAQ made a post-bubble high and it looks like it's going for its all time high this year. So highs should be coming to all indexes very soon, possibly by tomorrow. The target for the bullish 5 count using cash prices is 2210. But since we had that issue with pre-market a week ago, the W1 label could be at 2050 and not 2072. So if we taken into account pre-market then a 5 count targets 2150.

My longs are doing pretty good and I will be looking to short to hedge once the 5 count ends or a bearish pattern appears. For now, it's time to enjoy the ride.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 11

The market continues to follow the possible bullish W3 count and it looks like the excuse will be the  Greece negotiations with the EU. I believe waves can predict sentiment but not actual political outcomes, so if Greece doesn't leave the EU we should see the W3 materialize. But if the Greeks decide to leave the EU, then I assume there will be some sort of pattern failure as I can't imagine the market rallying. For now, all trends are back to bullish. Also, oil continued to sell off today and its TA is at risk of turning bearish. But the stock market doesn't really care, I'm sure if we get a big equity rally then oil could be used as an excuse to correct again.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 10

The 50 DMA has proven to be difficult to breach and it looks like the bullish wave I was expecting started today. I posted the following on the ewaveanalytics.com site over the weekend and it pretty much summarizes the bottom line:

"Bears had an opportunity to bring down the market in the past 4 weeks but prices are still above the 50 DMA. And now that oscillators have reset, odds favor sentiment swinging towards the bullish side. Bears would need to bring the market under 2044 and close below this level to regain some control."

We still need price confirmation to officially label the current wave a W3. But unless the market is doing a flat zig zag, chances are new all time highs are coming as soon as this week. Oil sold off today but the stock market dismissed the move completely, which means oil could probably test its lows and the market will be looking the other way. As I've been saying for weeks, all these headlines on oil, Greece, etc. are just excuses for profit taking. Unfortunately, people who trade on news usually end up holding the bag. Take the front page on the WSJ today, which I just took a picture of. Just when oil tested its 50 DMA and this headline came out, prices plunged. I wish I could have saved some headlines when oil was at $43, but it was the complete opposite with doomers calling for $20 oil..

I am 100% sure a top will come eventually when a thing called a "recession" finally re-appears. But in an environment where the Fed is telling you they are going to raise rates, it pays off to respect the trend and trade with it.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - February 9

The market started a correction as expected and we could still see more downside to the 2025-2030 area. The big question is the wave after the correction is over, if it's a W3 then new time highs are highly likely. Oil continues to be support the stock market, but now that the 50 DMA was tested today at $53.92 as I had been expecting, we could see a resumption of another bearish wave in oil. Which in turn could be used as an excuse for the stock market to sell off again. For now, bulls continue to have the upper hand but need a good excuse to start a strong rally.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaw