Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 8

The market sold off today as expected in what looks like a potential micro 5 wave count. If the labels are correct, we should see another leg to test the 2050 support and possibly set up a neckline for a Head and Shoulders. If there's going to be a substantial correction, it should start right now so the market can position itself for a Santa Rally. So we'll see if the Trend Average turns bearish after being bullish for 7 straight weeks.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 5

The market found resistance and support today in the rising wedge trendlines, so we might see the market break out of the rising wedge on Monday or Tuesday. If the market can sell off to 2050 and bounce from there, we could get a Head and Shoulders. Which would fit well with the bearish MACD rollover and the fact that this market has rallied 14% without any significant correction. If the bulls manage to break the wedge to the upside, then 2100 will be the next stop but I doubt it at this point.. that would be insanity. 

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 4

We got another marginal higher high on the SP500 today and the bearish 1-2 count was invalidated. It seems like we could be seeing another rising wedge as the market is facing overhead resistance so unless these upper levels are cleared soon, we will see the 2050 low tested. With that said, there is also an Inverse Head and Shoulders targeting 2101 so we need to see the TA turn bearish soon or else we will see more upside. I am keeping my positions intact as I am enjoying the strong rally in China (which seems to be in the early stages of a multi-year bull market) and hedging with VXX.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 3

The market almost made it to the all time high set on Friday in what looks like B so far (could still be a bearish W2), so we should see what is the bearish response as soon as tomorrow morning. Also, there is now bearish cross on the daily MACD and more often than not, we have seen the 50 DMA tested whenever we get a rollover on this particular oscillator. Currently, the 50 DMA is at 1989 and the 200 DMA at 1939. If the market is going to behave "normaly", we should see decent bearish action very soon. However, if the euphoria continues, I can see this market rallying past 2100+ towards the ends of the year easily. I am still holding to my longs just in case but I switched my hedge today from SH (short SP500) to VXX in hopes we see some excitement in the next few days.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 2

The market bounced as I had been expecting and we should find out soon if the selling yesterday was just another correction or we will see further selling as soon as the bounce is complete. Ideally, there would be a clear catalyst to scare some traders into selling but I can't really see any one in particular that is getting headlines. If anything, the news are bullish considering Japan and China are at multi-year highs and still rallying.

I bought back the hedge I sold last last week just in case, but if the rally continues, I will try to position trade it again. Fortunately, my longs are doing ok since I'm up to my neck in China shares.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 1

The market finally started a correction that closed under the Trend Average, but it remains to be see if this is just one of those 20-30 point pullbacks that end up being reversed completely as we have seen  6 times since the 1821 low. Also, the catalysts for selling were not all that serious (Black Friday sales, China PMI, Oil?) so the market could snap back to euphoria after a day or two. Ideally, there would be substantial selling to consolidate gains and then get the market ready for a Santa Rally. I guess we'll find out this week if that's what the market wants to do.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 26

The market seems to have reset its short term overbought condition in a sideways move in the last couple of days and it now seems like it is ready to go to a higher high. There's simply nothing the market is fearful of at the moment and with December coming up, we might see uncontrolled euphoria if the market keeps doing these small sideway moves. That's not to say that they won't be a top, I am sure there will be one sooner than later. The main question is how much higher as this 5th wave just keep going and going. Also, with news of new stimulus coming from China and Europe coupled with a confirmed strong US GDP, the stage is set for a bullish close of the year for the US and the world.

I thought about closing my longs today given the strong advance but instead I closed my hedge to position trade it. I'll buy back those shorts again when short term oscillators get overbought again on Friday or early next week if we get micro W3 which seemed to be started at the EOD.

Happy Thanksgiving!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.