Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - December 1

The market finally started a correction that closed under the Trend Average, but it remains to be see if this is just one of those 20-30 point pullbacks that end up being reversed completely as we have seen  6 times since the 1821 low. Also, the catalysts for selling were not all that serious (Black Friday sales, China PMI, Oil?) so the market could snap back to euphoria after a day or two. Ideally, there would be substantial selling to consolidate gains and then get the market ready for a Santa Rally. I guess we'll find out this week if that's what the market wants to do.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 26

The market seems to have reset its short term overbought condition in a sideways move in the last couple of days and it now seems like it is ready to go to a higher high. There's simply nothing the market is fearful of at the moment and with December coming up, we might see uncontrolled euphoria if the market keeps doing these small sideway moves. That's not to say that they won't be a top, I am sure there will be one sooner than later. The main question is how much higher as this 5th wave just keep going and going. Also, with news of new stimulus coming from China and Europe coupled with a confirmed strong US GDP, the stage is set for a bullish close of the year for the US and the world.

I thought about closing my longs today given the strong advance but instead I closed my hedge to position trade it. I'll buy back those shorts again when short term oscillators get overbought again on Friday or early next week if we get micro W3 which seemed to be started at the EOD.

Happy Thanksgiving!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 25

The market took a break today from making new highs but we could be seeing some sort of rising wedge, so I wouldn't discount the possibility of higher highs before another test of the Trend Average. The GDP growth numbers that came out today blew past expectations and are supportive on an ongoing bull market, still I still think the rate of appreciation has gotten ahead of itself. So sooner than later, the market will reset itself again. Also, China's market has finally broken out of a multi-year resistance channel so we might see money flowing that way from profit taking in the US in the next few months. That market is still cheap relative to its history and other major stock markets in the world.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 24

The market seemed to follow through somewhat on the micro count posted, but the ideal would be another high before starting the correction. After rallying for over a month non-stop, the market really needs to take a break from all this unjustified euphoria. It almost seems like bears have capitulated at this point as they're nowhere to be seen.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 21

The bulls showed up once again to invalidate my bearish labels and we got a substantially higher high today. So the seemingly correct count was the bullish 1-2 micro count and we obviously got the W3 this morning, which implies at least one more high early next week. I just hope these waves won't overlap again as they have been doing in the last 2 weeks as it makes them hard to predict. Perhaps this new ATH will be the Head of an H&S formation? I am in pain now over my uncovered hedge but at least my long shares are doing very good, so I'll just continue to wait this out until I can exit the short position. Isn't it amazing the market has now rallied 14% just because it was overbought? Next time the market gets very oversold, remember this particular rally. Oscillators were clear to me few weeks ago that a strong bounce was coming, but this rally has gone way above my most bullish expectations.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 20

The market ended bouncing right off support early morning but the bearish micro count is still in place. So if this count this correct, we need to see one strong sell off starting tomorrow. I normally don't like to add bearish labels to a bullish trend but this wave is getting ridiculously overstretched. I am still holding to my positions, so hopefully I'll get to sell hedge sometime soon.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.
 

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 19

Today we got a bearish wave early in the morning from 2056 to 2040 that might end up being a bearish micro W1, so we'll see if the market finally decides to correct. If this is a micro bearish 5 count, I am looking at gap support as the initial target at 2015. And obviously, if prices go above 2056 then the bearish count gets invalidated and instead we'll see some sort of bullish triangle or even a nested bullish 1-2. But at these levels and after this long rally, I think the probabilities are slim.

Also, I wanted to follow up on the 2400+ target for the market if we are indeed witnessing the start of the final LT Int 5th wave. If the market gets to that level, chances are very high that a significant top will be in as any more significant upside will likely result if some sort of crash. The reason I say this is because the US market has never been more than 150% of GDP for long and while it could go higher, it would be the first time in history the market would be that overvalued. The following graph speaks for itself.

So 2015 might be the end of the bull market as we know it. History and the LT count supports this scenario, so should all major trends turn red next year (LT trend has been bullish for almost 3 years), it will be time to finally go net short in the US or at least wait for a while before getting back in.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.