Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 20

The market ended bouncing right off support early morning but the bearish micro count is still in place. So if this count this correct, we need to see one strong sell off starting tomorrow. I normally don't like to add bearish labels to a bullish trend but this wave is getting ridiculously overstretched. I am still holding to my positions, so hopefully I'll get to sell hedge sometime soon.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.
 

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 19

Today we got a bearish wave early in the morning from 2056 to 2040 that might end up being a bearish micro W1, so we'll see if the market finally decides to correct. If this is a micro bearish 5 count, I am looking at gap support as the initial target at 2015. And obviously, if prices go above 2056 then the bearish count gets invalidated and instead we'll see some sort of bullish triangle or even a nested bullish 1-2. But at these levels and after this long rally, I think the probabilities are slim.

Also, I wanted to follow up on the 2400+ target for the market if we are indeed witnessing the start of the final LT Int 5th wave. If the market gets to that level, chances are very high that a significant top will be in as any more significant upside will likely result if some sort of crash. The reason I say this is because the US market has never been more than 150% of GDP for long and while it could go higher, it would be the first time in history the market would be that overvalued. The following graph speaks for itself.

So 2015 might be the end of the bull market as we know it. History and the LT count supports this scenario, so should all major trends turn red next year (LT trend has been bullish for almost 3 years), it will be time to finally go net short in the US or at least wait for a while before getting back in.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 18

The market finally broke out of range today by making a somewhat substantially higher high. And assuming today's wave was some sort of micro W3, there is still more upside to come with a micro W5 ending around 2060. Trade below 2046 would invalidate this potential micro count and perhaps signal the start of the real correction. Also, looking at how far this wave has traveled, if the wave from 1821 is a W1 and ends around 2060 then we're looking at a target of 2400. Which at the point will probably be the actual top of the entire long term wave from the 666 low in 2009. Isn't it crazy just how far and how fast the market has come in just 5 years? To illustrate just how big the US market has become. Look at the graph posted below. The US is a $17 trillion economy, while China is a $10 trillion economy and Japan $4.5 trillion. Usually, stock markets hover around 100-120% of its total economy. So if 2400 is reached, I am pretty sure there will be some serious adjustments coming.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 17

Not much to add today given the same boring pattern as last week. This despite the -10 point move in pre-market due to a surprise negative GDP number in Japan and its now official recession. I am not sure if the market plans to drop soon or it is just buying time to set up another bullish leg at this point before finally correcting. The Trend Average will be catching up to the market in the next couple of days and that normally signals a substantial move either way.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 14

This has to be the most boring 2 weeks in the market in the last 5 years. Despite having 5-6 new all time highs since 2021 broke couple of weeks ago, the total advancement has only been 1%. But at least the high from yesterday has held and the H&S pattern is still in play. So maybe we'll see some excitement early next week with a sell off or the beginning of another bullish leg. Also, I wanted to clarify the 5th wave label I have on the chart since I saw confusion over it. Basically, I see it as the last leg of the structure from 1821 but that doesn't mean it can't go higher. Usually, short term waves are more predictable when they have clear 5 wave micro counts to them and not overlapping counts like the ones we're seeing. That's why I haven't bothered to count the waves within this 5th wave as there's little predictive value to them. So the V label shouldn't be interpreted as a call for a top but as the actual label for the wave. If I felt this was "the top", I would be selling my long positions and not stay hedged.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 13

The market put in another all time high today but this time early gains were reversed to support (finally tested its Trend Average after rallying for 3 weeks) before ending the day mildly positive. Since the market bounced right at support, now we have a possible Head and Shoulders pattern targeting 2015. Not exactly a "big" correction by any means, but perhaps the beginning of a multi-week correction. With that said, the correction today could be a W4 so until the TA is lost, a top is not confirmed.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - November 12

Today is the first "negative" day after 5 consecutive all time high days, which we have never seen since the market started making new early ATH last year. The wave count looks complete and at least very close to completing and I see the potential of a rounded top as long as 2041 holds. So maybe we'll get more excitement in the next few days. Maybe the Russian invasion of Ukraine will do it or some renewed bearish interpretation (in itself, ridiculous) of low oil prices?

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.