Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 13

The 200 DMA was not able to hold the selling today and an important layer of support in the 1880's was broken as well. From the wave perspective, it looks like the market is trying to find the bottom of an expanded flat (A=1904, B=2019, C = 1974?) or it is selling on some sort of W3. Looking at technical indicators, the market is extremely oversold and is due for a strong bounce or even the start of a new bullish rally. I remember last year around November, when I thought the LT Int W3 had finished, the market was going to test the 200 DMA at the very least to confirm a LT Int W4. But that test never came and perhaps this is the LT Int W4 correction that was supposed to come last year. Which implies this bearish structure will find a bottom and then we will see LT Int W5 to new all time highs. The fundamental picture supports a correction and not a sell off in my opinion and I think the market will be reminded of that now that earnings are going to be reported. The current excuse for the sell off is the possible slowing of worldwide growth, given Germany's exports contracted substantially in last month, which in itself is not a surprise given Russia is one of their main trading partners. However, China just surprised to the upside yesterday on both exports and imports but that went mostly unnoticed. So given the fact the US is growing at or slightly above projections,  China continuing 7%+ growth, I think the whole thing is just an excuse and the markets will stabilize and rally again. I think once Marc Faber or any one of those always bearish "experts" appear on CNBC to scare the public, we will be able to confirm the bottom..lol

I went long early morning after seeing a 30+ point reversal (which I thought was a micro W1) from pre-market lows, but ended up getting stopped at 1880 for a -1% loss. However, I went long again at the close with a stop at the next key support level, so hopefully the market Gods will be kind to me in the next few sessions. Obviously, this is a counter trend trade so I'm looking to sell rallies until key levels are recaptured.


We will be making trade recommendations this weekend on the EWA site. For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 10

The market failed to find support at 1925 and instead ended up testing the 200 DMA at the end of the day as I had speculated yesterday. However, since the low came at the close, there is a good chance  the low put in ES few weeks ago as the actual bottom for this sell off (1995 cash equivalent more or less). So early next week, I am looking at the 1880-1900 range as the potential bottom and a rallying point for a strong counter rally or sustained multi-week rally. I was really tempted to go long at the close, but I'll take my chances and wait until Monday before committing.  I find the risk/reward at this level is very favorable, specially given where the stop level is.

We will be making trade recommendations this weekend on the EWA site. For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 9

Another exciting day on Wall Street. The market sold off today just as hard as it rallied yesterday, so now the bulls need to make their case before selling gets out of control. Looking at the chart pattern, if we get a bounce tomorrow that stalls around the Trend Average, then we could be looking at a Descending Triangle with a target of 1875. However, if the selling continues tomorrow, I think there's a very good chance the market will find a bottom at the 200 DMA/1904 support level. Again, a level the market has not seen since late 2012! I ended up getting stopped out of half the longs I had from yesterday in afterhours as it dipped below the equivalent of 1925 cash. But I will be going long again if the market makes it to 1904 on a continued sell off with a short stop.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 8

The market managed to put in another strong reversal today after putting in a marginally lower low at 1925, but this time the index closed above the Trend Average and you guys know I am all about that number. Obviously, today's bearish action invalidated the IHS option so we need to see if today's low will be re-tested or we will see the start of a new multi-week rally. Bulls need to recapture the 50 DMA at 1973 and stay above it, and bears need to get their act together as their time is basically running out. I went long today per my plan yesterday when I saw the market hesitate at the 1926 level, but I already sold half at test of the Trend Average for a nice profit and raised my stop on the other half to 1925.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 7

Bears made their presence felt today by breaking support and selling off towards the end of the day. The bullish 5 wave count I was tracking was invalidated and I replaced the labels with an ABC. If the bearish micro count is correct, we will see 1926 tested at the very least and we might even see the 200 DMA which is at 1904. Furthermore, the Intermediate Trend has turned clearly bearish with today's close so it is time to be cautious with longs. I got stopped out of my other half of the long position at 1949 at break even, but I am expecting a tradeable bounce if the market gets to 1904 or even 1926 if the selling exhausts around that level. And as I've been saying in the last few days, the market is technically ready to start a substantial rally given the oversold conditions. If the market fails to start a strong counter rally, then perhaps it is time to start expecting a "real" correction of 10% or more.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 6

Sorry for the late update, I had another busy day today. The market tested its 50 DMA as I had been expecting and now we have another Inverse Head and Shoulders targeting new all time highs at 2037. And while the trend is bearish and the intermediate trend is about to turn bearish, there's a good chance the IHS will materialize given the oversold conditions and last week's strong reversal day. Obviously, a corrective wave can not go under 1926 and I'd like to see the market recapture the 50 DMA and the Trend Average in the next session or two to confirm a new rally. If the bears fail to gain control this week, I think they will have to wait again for a while before another chance. I ended up taking half profit on my longs and I am keeping the other half with stops raised to break even (1949).

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - October 3

The potential bearish 5 wave count was invalidated at 1964 and the Trend Avg/50 DMA was almost tested with today's high. If the market is able to continue the rally next week, we might see the start of another multi-week bullish wave. The 200 DMA is at 1902 and the market might again be able to avoid a test, as it has in the last 2 years. Which in itself, is just a normal correction within a bull market but people just keep buying all the minor dips. I didn't sell my longs since the market has not reached my trading target, but I raised my stops to a little above break even.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.