Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 10

The market did not sell off as I had been hoping and instead it counter rallied to test the Trend Average towards the end of the day. So, the count I had yesterday gets eliminated due to W4>W1 overlap and the pattern not looks more like an ABC correction. With the C wave being an expanding descending wedge, a pattern we don't see that often. If the pattern breaks out to the upside (which it does 70% of the time), the target is 2021. Still, the overall picture is mixed and the TA has turned bearish (by a very slight margin). In addition, the daily MACD has rolled over so even if we get that bullish wave, chances are the market is going to see a stronger correction. I covered my short at a profit once waves started to overlap and I will look out for another short set up once I see trade set up again.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 09

We finally had some guidance from the market today and it looks like it is going down. The break of 1990 will most likely result in a test of the 50 DMA at 1971, so now we have to see if we get 3 waves that gets a strong bounce from the 50 DMA or 5 waves to test support at 1952. Looking at the daily chart, the MACD rollover is imminent, unless there's a bullish miracle. I can see a Head and Shoulders forming if we get a bearish wave that gets stopped around 1900. But I also like the idea of an expanded flat where this bearish wave finds a bottom at the 200 DMA. I am already short, so I will just keep adjusting my stops to the TA or wave peaks/turning points. At this point, I will lower my stop to 1991, which already makes this trade profitable. And obviously, if the market is able to recapture the TA then we'll have to scratch the bearish targets and look for new clues.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bullish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 08

We didn't get follow through buying today and the short term pattern can be interpreted as a 1-2 for both bulls or bears. But basically, the key markers are the all time high or the 1990 support level. A break of either one, confirms what will most likely be a W3. The market also closed right on the Trend Average, which is as neutral as it can get.  There is however a Diamond Top like pattern and the daily MACD wants to rollover, so we could be at the top already or like I said last week, we get one final leg up before the real correction starts.  I am keeping my short position but now lowering my stop to 2007.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 05

The market was able to stage a decent counter rally today after bouncing off 1990 support, so there's a good chance the "head" is forming for an H&S. Obviously,  it is very early to speculate on this pattern but we've spotted quite a few on here during similar stages. I went short anyway just in case but my stop is the all time high at 2010, so we'll find out early next week if the market has enough momentum for another ATH. Once the top is in, we will have to start guessing how strong the pullback will be. I just read some research from Deutsche Bank about 10% corrections and it makes me wonder if we are even going to see one until the next recession. It's been 563 days since the market pulled back 10%, which is longer than average. However, there was an 1800+ day streak in the 90's and a 1200+ day streak that started in 2003. Therefore, we might continue to see shallow pullbacks and then more rallies. According to the article, 10% corrections tend to cluster around recessions and economic crises, which makes total sense since the stock market is a reflection of the underlying profits of companies being traded. So as long as the economy is growing, put the your money in the markets. Also, another factor that might contain pullbacks is the just announced QE in Europe. A lot of that European money is going to flow to the US and Emerging markets, creating a favorable worldwide environment for stocks. Whether QE will work in Europe is another question, but given the US example, I think they will manage to prevent deflation and create enough liquidity for growth. Bernanke is looking like a genius now days as he was the chief architect of this formula.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 04

The market made it's 3rd all time high in a row and reserved at the end of the day. However, unlike other reversals, this one ended below the Trend Average so I think this is the clue the top is in or the "neck" for a Head and Shoulders is being set up.  Going by my estimates, if we assume today's reversal wave from 2011 to 1992 is W1 or A, then I expect the 50 Daily Moving Average at 1968 to be tested in the next session or early next week. With that said, there is support at 1990 and the Trend Average remains bullish and if the market is able to put in another all time high, then that formation will likely be the head of an H&S. I will get into a short position once I see a clear set up.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 03

We got yet another higher high today at 2009 and just like yesterday, it reversed to test the Trend Average again. The move today could be setting up a bullish W3 to a another higher high, but the line in the sand is 1994.85, so any more downside can not go under this level and definitely not below 1990.52 as that would open up a whole different count. I'd like to see a clear bullish run from here and then call a top. Asia is already very bullish, and if the EU decides to stimulate the economy (I don't see why not) later today, then the markets will have a solid excuse to go crazy. I don't have any positions in my short term trading account, but my long term account is looking very good.. maybe 2015 will be my retirement year! lol

On a sidenote, I just read this on the news.

http://news.yahoo.com/militants-vow-throne-putin-over-syria-support-225140129.html

I'd like to see Putin put the Ukraine thing on hold and take on the ISIS challenge. Obama might "not have a plan" since he is so politically correct/wishy washy, but Putin will in no uncertain terms try to obliterate these nutjobs.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - September 02

The market made another all time high today in the morning before reversing to test the 1995 support level/Trend Average. There are several ways to look at today's price action but the ultimate outcome is basically the same, new all time highs are coming in the next few days as long as the Trend Average holds. The market is fearless despite all the bad things happening around the world, so as much as I'd like to see a 10%+ correction after the wave structure is complete, we might get another quick correction and then another rally to trap the few bears still standing.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.