Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 11

The counter rally continued today but topped around the 1942 resistance level. The wave to 1944 can be counted as an A wave or a Bullish W1, so now I am expecting a retrace to around 1916 and depending on the wave after the retrace, we'll find out if the correction will continue or we're in for SP2000's. I don't see the market breaching its 100 DMA at 1915 on this coming bearish wave, so I might use that level to go long. But just in case, I bought back my Gold position.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 08

The market broke out of the wedge today in a strong counter rally. The market actually did make it to the 1885-900 target zone I was hoping for since last week, but unfortunately it was not reflected in the cash market as this happened in pre-market, and the rally was in full swing already early morning. Taking into account how much the market rallied from the pre-market low to EOD, the wave is 37 points. If this is part of an ABC move, the market should easily reach the 50 DMA. But if this is a bullish W1, we are looking at new time highs. The current longer term count is likely to be a W4, and as such corrections will not be as deep and it's a good idea to prepare for a sideways correction/shallow correction before the market resumes its bullish trend. One piece of "real" news (as opposed to "excuse" news), is the export numbers from China yesterday. The numbers were very strong, and that signals the world economy is doing well. So despite all these events in Russia, Iraq, Argentina, etc. The bigger picture is the World's GDP continues to grow and companies continue to grow profits, which lays the foundation for a continued bull market.

I am on the sidelines with my trade account as I didn't get a chance to buy at the 1885-900 level. But if we get a decent B or W2 retrace, I'll be able to go long.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Have a Great Weekend!


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 07

The market made lower lows a expected but I don't think it's done yet. The Falling Wedge pattern is in play and I only see 3 waves within it so far, so perhaps we'll see a small bounce in pre-market or tomorrow and then one more wave down to my target area. The low today was 1904 and we could see a counter rally start from here, but I am not buying it just yet. I did however sell my Gold position for marginal profit, but I will probably buy it again instead of shorting when the market rallies to the Trend Average.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 06

The market made another lower low today and bounced early morning. However, the counter rally was weak considering how short term oversold the market is. So I suspect there will be lower lows to come before the end of the week. The wave from 1942 to 1911 actually has 5 waves and could be the final 5th wave, but it is short of my "ideal" target, and I think a Falling Wedge might be in the works. Gold finally rallied today, which might be a signal that money is starting to flow to safe haven assets. But my plan remains the same, I will sell Gold if the SP500 makes it to the 1885-1900 range and long the SP500 to the Trend Average.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 05

The market made a lower low as expected and this bearish wave should be the final one in the structure before another counter rally. Looking at the micro count on today's bearish wave, I see an incomplete impulse. So there's a good chance the market is not done selling just yet. If 1942>1926 is wave 1, then I have 1885-900 area as the target for a bottom and the level I like for going long. I just hope Gold does something so I can cash in with some profit, despite the geo-political news that were supposedly the reason for today's sell off, Gold barely moved. Which implies there isn't as much fear during this sell off. Last but not least, the Medium Term Trend has turned bearish and this now has the potential to drag one for a few weeks or even months. If you enjoy shorting, the risk/rewards favors the bears as long as the market trades under the Trend Average and the 50 DMA.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 04

The market has continued to bounce and there's now an ABC from the 1916 low. A drop from this level to make a lower low would satisfy the 5 wave count, hopefully it will be in the 1885-900 area so I can go long! If the the bounce continues and is able to over the 50 DMA at 1954 and the Trend Average, then there's a chance for the bulls to regain control. But for now, this remains a counter rally within a bearish trend. Also, the Medium Trend change to the bearish side looks imminent at this point. It would take a huge day up to keep the IT from turning bearish.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - August 01

The market continued it's sell off today and put in a low of 1916, which looks to me like the end of W3. Ideally, we'll see a W4 bounce and get a lower low on a W5. The area I am watching is the 1885-1900 area, which has a cluster of support and which could provide a lower risk/higher reward long set up. If there's a sell off early Monday to that level, I will be selling my Gold and going long there with stops at the lowest support.

This correction we are seeing could be the start of a Zig Zag or a Triangle to form a Primary 4  (or LT Int 4 as I sometimes call it) for the longer term count. There is the chance the whole structure from 1074 is complete, but I like the idea of a Primary 4 and then a rally to 2400 more or less. IF this is a P4, the ideal bottom will be 1737, so another 10% downside from today's close. Economies around the world are looking strong, specially the US and China, so maybe we'll have see another big rally later this year or next until we see the next serious recession. Which would coincide with the last year of the US Presidency, just as it happened to the last two Bush Presidents (Clinton missed it by one year). Should a recession come during Obama's last year, Jeb Bush will be the new President imo.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.