Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 31

The market has finally sold off in what looks like the start of a stronger correction.  The wave today looks clearly like a W3 and further downside is likely. We might see a bounce tomorrow or Monday and the key levels to watch are 1955-1962, a counter rally can not go past these levels. Also, if the market fails to recapture its 50 DMA in the next few sessions, the Intermediate Trend will turn bearish as well and that will be confirmation of a multi-week or even multi-month correction. There were several headlines today that caused the sell off, but it's not really clear to me which one was the main reason. One thing I found odd is that safety assets sold off too, which usually doesn't happen during a stock market sell off.  One of the reasons I am in Gold was because I expected a Gold rally once the market found a top, but so far it hasn't moved all that much so we'll see.

Also, we issued our first ever short call yesterday on the new site we launched three months ago and it was very well timed. We are offering free trials, so feel free to check it out.

July 30th, 2014
The short term outlook continues to be bearish and now we see a potential count for stronger selling. We recommend traders with a higher risk tolerance to start building short positions with a stop at 1991.39 

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 30

The market gapped up to test the TA but reversed to put in a lower low to close again below the Trend Average. So far, the bearish wave to 1962 looks like a C wave and unless we see strong selling tomorrow, we will probably see the all time high challenged again. The GDP number was very good, so fundamentally the reason to continue the rally is there. On the bearish side, we have Argentina defaulting on it's debt and perhaps that could be used as a reason for a sell off. However, this default is more of a dispute than an actual default, so in reality not much of a bearish event if you understand the situation behind it. Even when Argentina defaulted in 2001, everything was normal after a year or two. I was in Buenos Aires around that time and there were hardly any traces of any financial crisis, in fact, it was a great time to visit.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 29

The Trend Average has turned bearish with today's close and now we'll see if are going to get the correction so many people have been waiting for. The selling from today must continue tomorrow and break 1967, if not then there's a good possibility for a strong bullish wave to a new all time high as there's a zig zag from 1984 that could be counted as a W2. If key support breaks, specially 1955, there's a good chance we'll see 1800-1900 in August. I'm still holding Gold on my short term portfolio.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 28

The market had a bearish open but found support at the 1965 level and ended up the day closing right on the Trend Average and at resistance, so tomorrow we could see the start of a sell off if the market has indeed found some sort of top. If the market manages to break resistance, chances are the all time high will be challenged. There are headlines around calling for the start of a correction, which is needed for substantially higher highs to come. But with some markets breaking out, most notably China, any correction at this point will probably not retrace all that much. Maybe in the 5-10% range?

Also, I wanted to add that I have not posted an Intermediate or Long Term count recently because waves are not very clear. One could argue the market continues to be in a Primary 3rd wave or the final 5th wave of the structure that started in October 2011 at 1074. If you are fortunate enough to have been long since 2009. the best thing to do is follow the trend signals primarily and wave counts second. Long Term Elliott Wave counts can form a bias (specially if trend signals are ignored) that can be disastrous if you find yourself on the wrong side of the trend. To illustrate my point, just take a look at the infamous count from Elliott Wave International in 2010. Which at that point almost every single EW person was following and trading.

Anyone who traded that Long Term count expecting the DOW to go to 400 this year got basically wiped out completely. However, if one takes the trend into account and puts aside all the personal biases as I did back then, the expectation and expected results could not have been further apart.

Trend is your friend!


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish Trend being Challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 25

The bullish micro 5 count failed today as the correction retreated below 1979.91, so it implies a good possibility of lower lows if the all time high does not get breached. One pattern I'd like to see is a Head and Shoulder's with 1955 being the left neckline (if 1991>1974 was W1, then I expect 1950-1955 on a bearish 5 count). If we see further selling, the market might find a bottom at that level and rally to form a right shoulder. This pattern would provide good short term opportunities for longs and shorts, so I'll be keeping an eye on it.  Also, I saw Goldman Sachs issued a warning of a temporary sell off in stocks in the next 3 months due to the what has been happening in the bond market. The market hasn't had two consecutive bearish months in 2 years, and maybe we'll see one before the summer is over. I am holding on to Gold and hoping to see a follow thru rally next week.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 24

The market made a marginal new high today despite good earnings reports and a strong China PMI. So I am assuming a 3rd wave peaked and we will see consolidation before another wave that should go past 2000. This 3rd wave on the micro count is about the same length as the 1st wave, which is shorter than usual for a W3. So we'll see if we get an extension on the 5th? For the micro count to be valid, 1979.91 can not be breached or else it will signal a deeper correction. My gold position did not do too well today but it is still within a bullish pattern, so we'll see..

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 23

The market continued marching higher today thanks to the tech sector and the count on the SP500 is starting to look like a bullish 5 wave count. If this is the correct count, then we're looking at 2015-2020 as the initial target. Considering there will be lots of earning reports tomorrow, this might just be the excuse to blow past 2000. Also, if China reports a good PMI tonight, it will set the tone for a worldwide rally so we'll see how the numbers look in a few hours. I am up to my neck in Chinese shares on my long term portfolio, so I hope PMI numbers will come above expectations. Lastly, I bought back Gold today as I see a potential for a multi-month rally if lows hold. Time for Gold to shine again.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.