Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 11

The market closed again below the Trend Average after briefly testing and we should get a decisive move early next week. If the wave from yesterday was a C, we could see a 5 wave count that will challenge 2000 next week. But if the wave is a subdivision of a W3, then we will see a substantial sell off starting Monday so it's toss up at this point. I am staying in cash until I see a better pattern to trade, plus I want to watch the World Cup this weekend stress free. It's too bad the WC is ending as I enjoyed the competition but is good in the sense that I can concentrate on stuff I've been postponing to watch the games.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish Trend Being Challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 10

The count I was tracking was invalidated with today's gap down as 1957 was the lowest the W4 could go. So I relabeled the previous bullish wave as a complete structure, and I am assuming this move is either a bearish 5 wave count to 1920 or an ABC correction that must not go below 1944. The daily MACD has turned bearish again, but this is the third time it has done so in the last couple of months only to get whipsawed. Normally, the bearish MACD turn allows the market to test the 50 DMA but I won't be betting on it until I see 1944 get taken out. The excuse for the sell off was Portugal but I get the feeling no one will remember Portugal in a few months time, as we've been thru this enough times already.. anyone remember Cyprus? I am in cash and waiting.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 9

The market bounced as expected but I will be looking at the W4 invalidation level I mentioned yesterday to see if it holds on the pullback. If the market manages to maintain closes above the Trend Average, we should see the all time high challenged this week or earlier next week. The earnings season might be an excuse to lift the market past 2000, so be careful shorting above the TA. Also, I saw Marc Faber predicting a "crash" again today. So if we go by his impeccable timing since 2009, we're going to see another bullish leg soon.. lol.

And too bad it won't be the original final in the WC I had wanted (BRA vs ARG), but at least ARG made it and I predict the cup goes back to South America on Sunday. Brazilians will be in pain to see ARG win in their country.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Stock Market Update - July 8

There was finally some stronger selling today, after weeks of rallying. The market closed before the Trend Average and failure to recapture the trend could mean a bigger correction is coming. With that said, the market is still in a W4 as long as 1957.51 holds. So if support holds, then expect a challenge to the all time high.  Maybe the market tops after the World Cup is over?

And now the World Cup.. I'm still shocked at Brazil's loss (Germans were merciless! ! ). I knew the game today was going to tough without their top scorer and their captain but not this. This was a historical game and one that I will always remember. It's almost like waking up and seeing the market drop 1000 points overnight.. so I guess it will be Deutschland and Argentina (which I think ARG will win). I was really hoping to see an all South American final but I guess it won't be happening anytime in the next 10 or 20 years..

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Stock Market Update - July 7

Hope everyone had a good long weekend. I was going to update last Thursday but since it was half a session and the market followed the count, I figured it would be best to update today. So basically, the count within the W3 that I saw possibly topping at 1987 (came close enough at 1985) is finished. And the reversal today is likely to be the W4, which could develop into a flat or a zig zag before launching one final wave to a new all time high. It's hard to tell if this count supports a test of 2000 but it looks possible given the euphoric sentiment and the lack of fear. I ended up buying volatility on Thursday but I closed the position today already. I think the market will be turning south sooner rather than later. But with earnings coming up,  maybe we'll get to some ridiculously high number before finally getting a correction. 

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Going for 1987?

The wave today fits the count perfectly, so we could see a rally tomorrow (because of the jobs reports?) to the mid 1980's level. The number I like in particular is 1987, so the market hits that, I'll buy back the volatility I sold the other day or even go short in expectation of a bearish wave to the Trend Average. I read this bull market is now the 5th longest ever at just over 1,000 days, so a bearish turn around could come soon. At the same time, the longest bull market ever was in the 90's and lasted about 2,500 days. These are times when the trend is your friend :) I think I have a better chance of calling the winner for the World Cup (I am predicting Argentina) than pinning down the long term top for this market.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Stock Market Update - July 1

The bullish wave finally came and the count has already reached its original target of 1975-1980 posted on Friday. However, since the W3 is subdividing, chances are this impulse is not done so I am expecting more highs in the next few days. How this impulse fits into the overall Intermediate count is open to debate but I assume a significant top is on the horizon, as in the next few weeks. In the meantime, it's best to just stay with the trend to either stay long and enjoy gains or avoid being short.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.