Stock Market Update - June 30

Nothing much to add today as the market spent the day within a tight range. The count I posted is still in play but perhaps the W3 is going to extend since there's a bullish nested 1-2 pattern. The 30 min MACD is rolling over and that's normally a signal for a short term bearish wave coming, so a bullish wave has to come tomorrow or else the market will be going back to test support again. Maybe a big move will come after the World Cup is over, for now watching soccer is a lot more interesting to me than looking at waves. And speaking of which, the ideal match I mentioned weeks ago looks very possible and that is Argentina vs Brazil, which Argentina will likely win imo.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Stock Market Update - June 27

The market tested the Trend Average again today and bounced back at the end of the day to end in positive territory. Considering today's price action, I am labeling the bearish wave from yesterday a C. And if the bounce wave from 1944 is a W1 of a bullish 5 count, then I have 1975-80 as a target for this new bullish wave. So it looks likely that we will see another all time high next week if the mood stays the same. Looks like SP2000 is around the corner..

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Market Update - June 26

The bearish wave materialized today and it didn't even get to 1941 before bouncing and recouping most of the losses and closing comfortably above the Trend Average. This pattern could be part of a bearish nested 1-2 with further downside to come, but I am leaning towards the wave being a C wave since the TA hasn't been affected at all during this correction. Alternatively, this could also turn into a double Zig Zag with lower lows but the bottom line is the market looks like it will make another attempt at new all time highs. I ended up selling my volatility position at the break of the TA on the counter rally and now I am just holding oil. Maybe the market is expecting QE4 in 2015, like a baby is expecting his mom to feed him. So maybe the horrible GDP numbers or perhaps even a recession is what the market needs to go up another 30%! 

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Stock Market Update - June 25

The SP500 bounced as expected after completing a bearish 5 wave micro count but it fell a bit short of its target. Still, this bearish wave could be the start of something bigger but obviously it needs to be confirmed with the next bearish waves and a the loss of the Trend Average. For now, I'd like to see how the next bearish wave handles the 1941 support area. The market could continue to bounce tomorrow but the next bearish wave should start soon and give us an idea of whether it is a C or a W3.

The revised GDP growth numbers were very bad at -2.9% for the first Quarter. The economy would have to grow 3% this Quarter just to bring economic growth to 0%. The economy will need to grow 4% in 3rd and 4th Q to meet the general revised target of 2% (it was originally 3% when we started the year), which is going to be hard to achieve. The market might not care now, but if sentiment turns, growth numbers are going to be a major concern.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Stock Market Update - June 24

The market finally corrected to test the Trend Average after putting in another intraday all time high early in the morning. Going by the micro count, I see the possibility of 1941 being the target of today's wave before a counter rally. I am not labeling the waves yet but this should be an A or a W1, so there should be more selling after a rebound. Also, the daily MACD wants to roll over again and I see RSI divergence on the daily charts, so perhaps we are seeing a higher degree top? All of a sudden the media has noticed the mess in Iraq. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Putin makes a move in Ukraine as everyone is more concerned with Iraq.

I bought back oil and continue to hold volatility. I will sell volatility depending on how the market handles the TA after a lower low.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Stock Market Update - June 23

The market took a break today in what seems to be like either a micro W4 consolidation or the start of a correction. Maybe since summer officially started over the weekend, we'll finally see some bears wake up? I don't expect much upside from these levels without a decent correction, so I am still holding to my volatility position. I did however sell oil to position trade, apparently oil has continued to flow despite ISIS capturing one of the largest oil fields. Another position I am considering is long Silver and/or Gold if they test their 50 DMAs, it's a lower risk/high reward set up imo.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Stock Market Update - June 20

Another day, another all time high. The bulls just don't want to stop despite the World Cup, summer, lower GDP growth, Russia, Iraq, oil, etc. The question is obviously at what point will reality set in, since the market needs a pullback to stay healthy. The higher it goes without taking breaks, the harder the fall. I am still looking for a test of the Trend Average early next week and so far it is looking like it will be a successful test, so SP 2000 might be just around the corner. I am still holding to VXX which I am still planning to sell on the pullback, and USO which I am not planning to sell anytime soon.


Have a Great Weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.