Stock Market Update - June 19

The market ended the day testing yesterday's all time high and we should see the pullback in the next session or two. At this point, bulls the have momentum and could possibly continue to push the rally after a pullback to the Trend Average. Also, I was looking at the NASDAQ and it made a post bubble high today which clears the intermediate term H&S pattern that was formed few weeks ago. In addition, the daily MACD turned back to the bullish side, a rare whipsaw of this indicator.
So this summer might just end up different to the past few summers where the market sold off each time. I will sell volatility if the market holds above the TA on a test, no point in fighting the trend. I am sure the market will top sooner rather than later but euphoria is unpredictable and it's better to stock to the TA for bearish trades at this time (as opposed to oscillators and EW).

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

All Time High

The market made another all time high today after the Yellen spoke. Normally, a rally comes after news like an upward revision of GDP and not a downward revision, but this market simple doesn't care. At this rate, the market might even rally at any hints of a recession! lol. Anyway, the wave I have labeled a B is still in play for an expanded flat. But the market can't go up much further as it would probably turn into a bullish 5 count. The B wave was very choppy up until later in the session today, so we'll have to see what happens tomorrow. Another possibility is a Cup and Handle formation, which would target 1986. I am selling the volatility position at anything less than a substantial sell off in the next session or two and will keep the oil.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Stock Market Update - June 17

The market had a bearish open today but was not able to follow through on the bearish count, and instead it moved up and made a higher high for the counter rally wave from 1925. Still, the bounce has been choppy and obviously looks corrective, so I am still expecting another bearish leg that will be a C or a W3. I continue to hold on to my positions as the situation in Iraq might get worse in the next few days.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Possible Sell Off Tomorrow

The market bounced early morning as I had been expecting but fell a bit short of the target I had for a ZZ. Still, the count suggest a ZZ and a possible bearish 5 wave count from 1941. If the micro wave I have labeled W1 is correct, then a 5 count will take the market to the 1918 support level. What happens then will the big question as the geo-political situation is not getting any better. Also, I just read GDP might be revised next week due to weaker than expected health care spending on Q1, with contraction targets of -1.5-2.4%. If that those numbers are correct, we will have another low growth GDP for 2014 of around 2%. Lastly, there's a daily bearish cross on the MACD and that generally means the 50 Day MA (currently at 1889) will be tested at the very least.

I am keeping oil and bought back volatility based on the micro count. If I am wrong on the count, I will keep position trading volatility.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Stock Market Update - June 13

The market bounced as I had expected and if this we get a zig zag then we could see 1945 on Monday. But if the market rallies hard on a bullish W3 then I have 1960 as a target based on the micro count. However, given the situation in Iraq, anything could happen as traders are taking the situation seriously. The latest I read was the ISIS making a push towards Baghdad and now Iran sending fighters to help Iraq, so this could get messy in the next few weeks. The uncertainty of this situation and a continued spike in oil should cause a real correction in the stock market. I am keeping my oil positions and will consider buying back volatility if the market is able to bounce on Monday.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Stock Market Update - June 12

The market sold off today and finally came back down to the Trend Average. For now, I am assuming this is an A wave and the market will be able to consolidate and rally again. However, if the market loses the TA then I will start entertaining downside targets. The market has a good excuse to sell now as oil is rallying, so what happens in Iraq and oil prices will probably be the main focus in the next few weeks. The interesting thing about oil is that I had been tracking an Ascending Triangle pattern for the past few weeks, with today being the break out of the triangle. In fact, it is the only asset I recommended to go long on the http://ewaveanalytics.com website since I started writing for it. So while Iraq is a legitimate excuse for an oil spike, the bullish pattern was there for quite some time. I just failed to think of an oil rally as the excuse for a market sell off.

May 17 update on EWA:

Oil has gone bullish on all its trends and looks like a good trading opportunity with a stop at $98.74

Unfortunately, my money was tied at that particular time but I bought USO today on the break out. What I didn't make on shorts (since I covered yesterday to position trade), I made on oil and will likely hold until I get a Trend Signal. And fundamentally speaking, the huge mess in Iraq is probably going to get worse as the ISIS, an offshoot of Al Qaeda, is preparing to battle for Baghdad. I can only imagine what a nightmare that will be if Iraq becomes a Caliphate. Ironically, the US supports removing the current Syrian government which is at war with the ISIS. If the Syrian government is toppled, my guess is that ISIS is going to take over too. The war on Iraq was a big mistake from the very beginning. It was a mistake going in, and it was a bigger mistake leaving the Iraqi government to fend for itself. The ISIS is going to make Saddam Hussein look like Gandhi.

Now, on a lighter note. Here is my prediction for the World Cup which I'm planning to watch for the next few weeks and which might delay my updates. The question for me is not so much who is going to win the WC but who is going to be in the finals against Brazil. The ideal will be Argentina vs Brazil in the finals (I have to check if Argentina falls in the opposing group), so basically an all South American final. I saw Brazil play today and I am sure Neymar and Oscar will be well known names by the end of the WC. What remains to be seen is how Messi plays this time in the Argentinean squad.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Stock Market Update - June 11

The market made another low to continue its correction from the 1955 peak, but I am getting the feeling the market is going to attempt another rally to another all time high before making a Fib correction. Maybe traders want to push it as high as 2000 before taking a summer break? I've always called for a Int Long Term W3 but I never imagined the market could go this high without much of a break since the rally started in Jan 2013. I covered my shorts to position trade, so hopefully we'll get a more predictable pattern like an H&S in the next few sessions.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.