All time high

The market broke out of the triangle and put in an all time high today as I had speculated on yesterday's post. However, there was a strong intraday reversal due to the situation in Ukraine but the market managed to reverse loses towards the end of the session and close at an all time high. Looking at this technically, the wave could be a 1-2 either way so I'll wait until Monday before putting some labels on it. The market has been ignoring somewhat bad economic news lately but the situation in Ukraine is serious as Russians look determined to secure the Russian speaking region of Ukraine as I think there is a historical significance to them. That and the fact Russia would not welcome a pro west country in their backyard, so this could turn into a conflict in a short period of time.

I didn't commit to any new positions today and probably will avoid the market until there's more clarity. The trend is clearly up and without the Russian situation the market should make higher highs. But Putin doesn't screw around so we'll have to see what Obama's and Europe's response will be.

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

New High Tomorrow?

We got more of the same today with prices staying within a triangle. However, short term oscillators have been reset and the bias is up. Also, I drew a trendline for a triangle containing today's price movements however one could argue today's wave broke out of a tighter triangle so chances any more upside outside the upper trend will result in an all time high. If resistance is broken I will get back in long if I see a tradeable set up. I did however buy more China related shares on my long term portfolio and will probably add some more early next week.
 
Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Market Update

The market has been correcting sideways since putting in an all time high but since that impulse (to 1858) was basically 3 waves it makes the chart look somewhat odd since there is an obvious triangle taking shape as well as a Head and Shoulders targeting 1820. Usually, we get triangles and H&S formations after a stronger W3 but this one comes from what looks like an ABC as opposed to a 5 wave count. And who know, perhaps we will just see 3 waves as an impulse to another high and then see a bigger correction? this obviously goes against orthodox Elliott Wave rules but that's what's in front of us. It's rare to see something like this so this is something we can learn from. With that said, a nested 1-2 is still a possibility, it just looks off as far as form.

I ended selling the two long positions profitably in the morning (18/21) and I am waiting for some clarity before committing again. VXX btw has been rising (ironically from the minute I sold it when an all time high was made) and it usually does that when there is some sort of top, so we'll see how this works out as a to predictor.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Market Update

The micro 5 count I was tracking was invalidated today because of the W4>W1 rule. So I am looking at it now as a bullish nested 1-2 with a new high to come in the next session or two. Perhaps the market will end up repeating what it has done in the last 2 years, which is rally from January until April and start selling off in May?  So far there are couple of quick corrections from the 1737 bottom which look more like W4s than W2s and should this rally continue without a proper Fib retracement, I will just assume there won't be a "normal" W2 as it will be one of those Stand Alone W3's which tend to look like Zweig Breath Trusts.

I bought more short term longs today so I am all long now in my short term portfolio. Hope there will be a bullish W3 tomorrow..

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

All time high

The market was able to break out of the rounded top trendline and take out the all time high after hesitating for over a week. I was expecting an all time high and I continue to expect higher highs but this move up without a deeper correction was somewhat of a surprise for me. Fundamentally and technically speaking the market should have corrected more but the trends were clear last week so they are again right in pointing the direction of the market. I see a possible 5 wave count to 1875 but the selling at the end of the day has the chance of invalidating the bullish count posted so we'll have to keep an eye and see if we get complete reversal or a bullish nested 1-2.

I stopped out at the break of 1851 at a loss (16/19). This position was profitable when the TA was tested last week (my target to lock in $) but since I wasn't awake to sell I now have to absorb the losses. At least I noticed that TD Ameritrade has reinstated trade triggers so I am hoping this won't happen again.. I am keeping my short term longs obviously and I am planning to add to my long term portfolio this or next week as I have some  money coming in. If I see 5 clear waves up then I'll consider getting back VXX but for now I am not going to get in the way of a blind bull.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Market Update

The market came close to its previous top but fell short by just a fraction of putting a higher high. Also, I see on the micro count a potential top and a possible 5 count targeting 1826 so we'll see if that happens early next week. So far that rounded trendline I drew on the chart is acting as resistance on the market so any failure to break out of that would be considered a multi-week top. But again, the main factor I look at when I trade are trends so as long as those are bullish I am assuming the market will correct only to break out and put in another high. I am holding on to my VXX in hopes to sell them in the 1820's so hopefully that will work as planned and I will be awake to sell them.. lol

Have a great weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Bounce or Rally?

The market continued its sell off overnight but by the time the market opened it had recovered almost 10 points from its pre-market low and then continued to rally towards the end of the day. The move on the cash market looks like an ABC that bottomed exactly at the micro Head and Shoulder's target of 1824 and the Trend Average was tested in pre-market but not in the cash market. So the options I am looking at are either a complex correction with another wave of selling to test the rising 50 DMA or another bullish leg that will break the all time high. I am still not all that convinced with the last two minor corrections being enough for a base for the market to mount a sustainable rally and ideally we would get a deeper correction before a stronger bullish wave. But obviously I will not be fighting the trend, specially now that it's all green.

Now my trading.. I was hoping to lock in profits at any opening below yesterday's close and with the way futures down a decent amount it looked like a done deal. But futures started to reverse early morning and unfortunately I was asleep when the market hit the H&S target. So now I am stuck with VXX and hoping we will get a complex correction. If the market makes an all time high then I will stop out at a loss.. TD Ameritrade stopped providing trigger alerts and I wish there was some sort of service that would actually give me a call to wake me up! if anybody knows of anything like this please let me know, I am sure I'm not the only one in the west coast that could use this service.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.