Market Update

The market traded in a tight range today but I am still expecting a bearish wave to test the 1830-35 area before another attempt to break the all time high again. Earnings haven't done much as far as moving the markets but it is the ideal catalyst to push the markets out of range so perhaps a few positive announcements from the main companies and we'll have that new high? For now I am holding on to my longs and getting ready to add VXX to hedge again as it has dropped to another 52 week low today.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

Market Update

I thought when I went to sleep last night that I would wake up to a new all time high but unfortunately that wave was stopped at resistance so the correction continues and now it seems like we might get one more test of the lows and complete a double ZZ. Whatever the case, the market wants to go higher so I will be buying back VXX when the time comes. I set my stop at break even on my ZIV and unfortunately it got stopped out in the morning on the bearish wave so maybe I'll load up again if we get another test of the lows.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

New high next week?

The market put in the C wave I speculated about yesterday and it bottomed in the mid 1830's area before climbing back up to close right on the Trend Average. So now we have enough of a correction for the market to start the next bullish leg and perhaps put in a new all time high next week. The market is free to do another Zig Zag before launching but oscillators have been reset enough for a bullish W3 which if it happens will likely turn the daily MACD back to bullish. I think sentiment is overwhelmingly positive at the moment with some shadows of pessimism here and there but the path of least resistance continues to be up. I ended up buying ZIV (short int volatility) for the first time and I'm hoping to see that bullish W3 next week to see how it does. My plan this year is to use ZIV as my primary short term long and VXX as the hedge, that way I keep things simple and hopefully very profitable.

Have a Great Weekend!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

Correction

The market started its correction as anticipated but not sure if it is a W4 or a W2 yet. The market got somewhat close to the TA but it never went below 1840 so there could an ABC move in the works with a C wave coming tomorrow or the correction could be over already. We'll have to wait and see how the coming bullish wave develops. I am however playing it safe so I sold my VXX today for some profit and will wait for a sub 40 price (or something close to it) before getting back in. I just need my longs to do their job!

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

All Time High

I don't usually get surprised by the market but I have to admit I didn't see this one coming despite having labeled the drop to 1818 a C wave. I figured there would be some sort of hesitation before a bounce or a rally but I guess it just goes to show there are some desperate bulls out there buying every single dip. In fact, I can't really remember a similar situation where a sharp sell off waves gets answered with a sharp rally on NO news. But it is what it is and I welcome whatever the market wants to throw at us. The Trend Average was obviously whipsawed and the trend is now back to green after spending just one day in red. Luckily for me, the VXX I bought yesterday was actually profitable today but I figured I'll just take profit when we get a correction to the TA. You can't really see the micro count on the 30 minute chart I posted but there are 4 waves completed so far and perhaps there will be one last push in pre-market or tomorrow before the market goes into a correction.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

Counter Rally

The market tested the Trend Average and some today by staging a strong counter rally that looks as strong as the bearish wave from yesterday. However, the burden is still on the bulls as anything less than 1843 is just a bounce from the lower low made yesterday. Also, on the micro count there are 5 waves complete and that could mean today was the A leg of a corrective move or even the end of the counter rally so we'll just have to wait and see how the bears respond. I ended up buying back the VXX I sold yesterday cheap since whatever reason that existed yesterday for the sell off was completely gone today. But fear will come again and I will probably be selling my hedge again to pay for my home improvement projects.

Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

Short term trend has turned bearish

The market's failure to break the 1843 resistance level left from last week resulted in the most "significant" sell off in 2 months today. Obviously, the IHS has been invalidated and so far it looks like there is a bearish stand alone W3 so we could see a slight bounce and then a lower low. The reasons for the sell off vary depending on which media outlet you watch but it seems like the excuse  is mainly earnings anxiety and fear of taper. So if we get a bounce that gets stopped at the Trend Average, I assume there will be a bigger bearish wave that will take the market under 1800. After all, a LT Int W4 was supposed to start at 1790 and perhaps this is the multi-month wave that will reset all the longer term oscillators and test the 200 Day Moving Average? It's still too early to tell so I am labeling the move from the high as an ABC but should the "C" wave gain traction then it will increase the probabilities of a 5 wave count.  The near term level to watch is 1811-13, if that breaks there is a stronger support cluster at the 1775-80 level so I will be watching how the markets bounces before getting into a new position.  

I sold the VXX position at the A=C level of 1818 and will be buying it back on a test of the TA. But if the market continues to sell off then I'll catch it from the long side, ideally at the 1775-80 support level. With today's sell off, I finally made enough to pay for my fence!! all done with VXX. But now I am moving on to painting the edges of my roof, so we'll see how long that will take :)



Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.