Almost there?

The 1800 level I was speculating about last week was reached today but there seems to be one more push up before a higher degree correction. So for now I will be looking at the resumption of the rally tomorrow or further downside to test the Trend Average before one last push up. If the correction continues tomorrow it should not go below 1773.44 as that would technically invalidate the standard 5 wave count. Now, once all these waves are in, things will get interesting as it is technically time for a bigger correction but looking at the news and at sentiment there seems no other way but up. I guess we'll see if there is indeed any merit to all these wave counting business :)

And not sure if anyone here was able to catch the Bitcoin wave but wow.. I was hoping to get a retrace to $350 to buy a few coins just few days ago and today it reached $750 or more than 100% in a week. Too bad I didn't buy couple of months ago when it was at $120, I was ready to buy $15k worth just to diversify but all these trips and other stuff got in the way. Next time I see something with limited supply that has potential to attract lots of amateur investors, I will not miss it. That is a perfect combination for bubbles.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

S&P 500 - 26% Return YTD

The S&P came within couple of points of reaching 1800 today and with today's close, the index is up 26% YTD and making this an stellar year for those who held their long positions. It is obvious that this is a W3 and anyone who thought otherwise have probably missed out or worst yet caught short. Had this rally happened few years ago, I am sure I would have been caught short too but thanks the trend average, I get out of the way when a top prediction doesn't materialize like it happened earlier this week. But now that waves are evolving accordingly, I am expecting a W4 soon and then one last W5 before another possibility of a top for the W3  from 1266. Make no mistake that I think we are in a bull market and the Long Term W3 count targets SP 2,200 so this is a good time to evaluate plans for this coming year and how to handle the coming corrections keeping in mind that this market will continue to go way up.

I had to close my longs (on my short term trading account) today because they just shot up too much for one session and I will pick them back up hopefully at the retrace. I also bought back the VXX hedge (technically not hedging since I sold my longs) at a good discount and I am planning to unload them when I buy back my longs.

On a side note, I am glad Obama is backtracking on his insurance cancellations. That saves me about $2000 a year as I was going to be forced to pay double (when he promised repeatedly people could keep their insurance if they wanted to) what I pay now to fund Obamacare so overall, a good day$.

Have a great weekend!


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

1800+ coming

The market broke out of its previous range as expected in what is likely to be a W3. So I am expecting higher highs ahead, most likely in the 1800+ area before we see a bigger correction. As it is, my 1790 target has been hit and the entire LT Int wave is complete but that target just means W1 is equal to W5 and the market is free to extend its 5th wave. So for now, I am holding on to my longs and I am glad I sold my hedge yesterday as it is substantially lower already.

Additionally, anyone interested in buying Bitcoins to trade or to diversify, check out Coinbase which is the easiest place I found to buy and sell Bitcoins.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

New Highs

The market broke out of range today and now the bias is back to the upside, so I will now label 1746 as the W4 low and I am looking for higher highs in the next few sessions. I sold my hedge at the break of the all time high and for now I am assuming this new impulse will reach 1800+ if this evolves into a normal 5 wave count so I will be buying back the hedge then. I still think the market is reaching a significant intermediate top, so we'll see if the next change of trend will be the one.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

Market Update

The market has been keeping people in suspense with these relatively minor moves in the last couple of days but we should see a decisive move out of this trading range soon. The high from last week still stands so I continue to favor downside until a new high is made so I am looking for a test of the 1746 low and see if that holds. And as I said last week, if the 1752-55 range holds then we will be looking at 1800 on a break out so we'll see if there's any strength behind the current bearish wave.

I continue to hold both longs and volatility and will position trade accordingly. And stock market aside, does anyone here have a bitcoin account? if so where did you open it? I was going to open an account couple of months ago when it was at $130 and now it's almost $400 per bitcoin. The thing about bitcoin is that its number is fixed after computers finish mining it by 2020, so the more people pile in, the more it will go up. And since I trade with averages and trends, I could probably make a few bucks in that market given the fact that it will continue to go up a lot more before probably crashing/stabilizing. Aside from that, bitcoin or the ideal of an electronic virtual currency is here to stay IMO as there is a need for it given the need for currency diversification.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

Market Update

Not much to add today. The market attempted to make a higher high but it came a bit short so I am still waiting for the bearish wave to see how much of this bearish wave will be retraced.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors. 

Counter Rally or Impulsive Wave?

The market rallied hard today and erased most losses suffered yesterday and it managed to close comfortably above the Trend Average again to maintain the Bullish trend. However, the lower low yesterday is significant and until the market can prove itself by making a higher high to neutralize yesterday's low, the burden is on the bullish side. The 1752-55 area is very important and I think it will provide confirmation on which way the market wants to go. If the market fails to make a new high but the correction holds at the 1752-55 level, then we will have a bullish pattern again. And obviously, should the market make a lower low then it will be confirming a continued sell off. I should also add that there is a bearish MACD cross on the daily so this favors a stronger correction coming sooner or later.

Looking at the longer term chart, the original targets I had earlier in the year have been technically satisfied (those target price labels have been there for months) so whether or not the 5th wave is over or we're just seeing the beginning of it, odds are a multi-month correction is coming according this count. With that said, if I break down the "stand alone W3" and pick what I see as W1 then the projection is 1810-15 and if I add W1 points (66) to the low yesterday we get 1812. So I am paying extra attention to the coming bearish wave and the 1752-55 level.

On my trades, I picked up VXX again yesterday and I am holding it along with my longs and until I see a firmer trend confirmation I will continue this hedge.

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.