Almost there?

The market made another all time high today and it met the Ascending Triangle target from last week. And it seems to me like the market is getting very close to rolling over to start a correction but there might be some strength left to reach the 1710 level, there are divergences all over the place and the market needs a good base to rally from again. So I think we should see the end of this wave this week or next at the latest. As you know I don't normally like calling tops in a market with no resistance but euphoria has its limits, so we'll find out soon.

I am holding on to my VXX position but won't be adding the other 50% unless we reach 1710.

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Potential Rounded Top

The market traded sideways today in what seems like a slow moving Wave 5 on the micro count. However, looking at the pre-market charts the count on the cash market was technically invalidated yesterday so we now have a small divergence in counts at the micro level. Therefore, the market could have topped at 1693 and the pattern looks like a potential rounded top. This particular pattern is not a very reliable one but we can be prepared in case the market continues to trade under the rounded line on the chart. Also one thing I wanted to point out was the W5 of LT Int W3 looks very similar in size and look to the current wave from 1560. The main difference is that wave was 151 points and this current wave is 133 points, so a rise to 1710 which just so happens to be 1.618 of 1626-1560=66 would make it nearly identical to that W5. I've seen these odd coincidences in the past so I wouldn't be surprised if that is what the market is looking for. An ideal top would come in the form of a very bullish gap to that target level and then a sudden reversal, which is what happened on the day the market topped at 1687 in May.

I bought VXX today using 50% of my short/hedge position. So if the market makes it to that 1710 level I will add the other half.

Have a great weekend!

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Minor Wave 4 correction is coming

The market reached an all time high as I had been expecting now for a while and this moves confirms the LT Intermediate Wave 4 was the WXY move from 1687 to 1560. So now that we got out of the way, the game plan will be to catch a good trade set up to enjoy the rest of uptrend for the next few weeks or perhaps months. The current structure from 1560 is currently 133 points with negligible corrections and it seems like the next substantial correction will be a W4 that will be followed with a W5 targeting 1700+. So perhaps the market is close to the W3 peak and we will see a W4 start sometimes next week? I'd like to short a 5 wave completion but it will be very tempting if the market makes it to 1700-10 level. We'll see what the market does tomorrow since tech will probably drag the market after Google and MSFT earnings results. And Google btw is probably the one stock I would feel comfortable holding for the long term out of all tech companies so I might just buy me some Google on the correction. As this world becomes more tech oriented, Google will be grabbing a huge share specially since Yahoo and Bing/MSFT will continue to fall further behind.

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Ascending Triangle?

The market didn't do all that much today despite Bernanke's remarks and it seems like the market has been correcting more in time terms than price so we should see the resumption of the rally soon. The Trend Avg is now at 1663 and soon will catch up to the market, which is a very bullish sign. The last time the market refused to test the TA and instead "waited" for the TA to catch up was in January when it was in the high 1400's and where many "professional" traders got caught off guard shorting. So unless the market goes down substantially tomorrow, I think the market is about to take out the all time highs. Lastly, the market could be putting in an Ascending Triangle targeting 1696 on a break out.

I continue to stay on the sidelines to wait for a short term opportunity. My longs are looking a little better now so hope they will stage a big rally soon to break out of its range.

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Market Update

The market seems to have put in a W4 today that could technically still have some more downside. But given the advance in the past couple of weeks, I doubt we'll see any substantial selling. So I am expecting the rally to resume soon and make a new highs before going into any meaningful correction. The market seems to be very focused on what Bernanke has to say more so than earnings, so as long as he is seen favoring more QE the markets will be happy.

I continue to stay on the sidelines on my short term trading as I want to see a lower risk/higher reward set up before taking any positions.

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Another all time high soon

The market continued it's slow ascent to an new all time high and the SP500 is only 3 points away while other indexes like the Russell and Wilshire have reached new highs already. I am assuming there will be short covering if 1687 breaks so that should probably put a leg to test 1700 and perhaps that will be the time to buy back the short I had last week. So for now I am on the sidelines on my short term account and staying long on my core portfolio.

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

S&P 500 going for all time high

The market has now rallied 120 points from the 1560 low with a minimal correction in between. In fact, the market has had just 2 slightly red days vs 11 bullish days in the last 13 sessions so what started as a counter rally has turned into a full on euphoric rally. The 30 min MACD crosses that I track have had 3 bearish cross failures in a row, which hasn't happened in almost 3 years that I have been tracking it.  So I think the bulls control the market and we're officially on the first wave of Int LT W5, which if correct will put the market comfortably in the 1800's or even 1900's before we see a substantial correction. So for now my focus will be on going margin long on the correction, which hopefully will come after another all time high is set. I mentioned couple of weeks ago when the 1597 level was breached to not to get carried away too much with the bearish case as all of this had been expected on the LT Count but I didn't think the market would be challenging the all time high in just 2 weeks time. So much for all that doomster scenario.. ironically, Marc Faber was calling for "taking money off the table" (as if he was actually long all this time) and Doug Kass was sounding alarms about earnings just earlier this week..

Anyway, I ended up covering after the market seemed to have found support at 1674 so lost a few points there but will be trying again this position if we hit 1710. I rather skip these small W4s after all these MACD failures.


Have a Great Weekend!

Main S&P 500 Trends*

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.