1589

The market has finally reached the 1589 target I first posted early March and now there is complete wave harmony :) What has been surprising is that this rally came out of nowhere as there is no significant market moving event. I thought the Cyprus  resolution (remember all that end of the word drama?) would cause a rally like this one but markets didn't do all that much. What we have now is the second strongest bullish wave of the year at 50 points, which I am labeling a "Stand alone W3" just like the wave from Jan 1st, which ended up being 130 points. And looking closely at the 30 minute chart, the market actually did put in a right shoulder for the IHS but it was a much smaller bearish wave than I had expected.

So now that we are at 1589, the target I posted yesterday is looking fairly close. However, since I am treating this as a SAW3 (yes that's my own invention), this is free to go all the way to 1650 in May, right before we get Fiscal Cliff 2.0 which will serve as an excellent excuse to correct again. If we get to that level, chances are we are seeing a break out of the Broadening Formation below and a multi-year and possibly multi-decade bull market.

So if you are planning to short this market, be extra careful. I hold VXX as a shorting instrument to hedge and I don't worry much because that is not much compared to my long positions. But if you are net short, just keep in mind we are likely in a bullish W3 which are inherently difficult to predict as far as long term tops go. Best is to keep in mind that all signals are flashing green.. I tried to warn the guy below after he came out with a long article of why the market was going down, but I highly doubt he paid any attention to this charts for coffee guy.. lol

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Revised Target 1617 by May

The market continued its bull run and invalidated the H&S pattern on the Long Term Chart. And it now looks obvious the 1539 low was yet another base for another likely bullish 5 wave count. Last week when we first saw the first bearish wave I pointed out the option of a 5 wave bearish count to 1520 or an ABC stopping at 1538 and then going to an all time high.

"So before getting ahead of ourselves, we first need to see if we get that 5 count or another ABC correction and another higher high. If this turns out to be an ABC correction, then the market should bottom around the 1538 support level from the previous Int W4 or ABC."

The market managed to put in a higher low and one of the most bullish waves of the year (35 points so far) seemingly out of nowhere, as I can't find a catalyst that would cause this much bullishness. Perhaps it has something to do with the moon or me buying VXX (and NOT taking profit when I should of have) ..lol. So now that we got that out of the way, the new preliminary target is 1617 in May IF this is a W1. And perhaps then, we should see the market hit the upper channel of the Long Term Chart and finally put it "the" top for the rally that started from 1343 (amazing how much the market has advanced in just a few months).

I am officially holding a VXX bag and my plan is the same as yesterday, get rid of it on the next bearish wave unless we get an amazing sell off taking out 1538.. which I don't see just yet. Good thing I am also long so I can look at that portfolio and pretend I am not a bag holder..

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) initiated September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013 - Bought back 5% 02/27/13 - bought 5% 03/01/13 - bought 5% 03/04/13 - bought 5% 03/06/13

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy

• Bought 3000 VXX@ 20.22 on 04/04/13
• Bought 3000 VXX@ 19.83 on 04/02/13 Sold 3000 VXX@ 19.99 on 04/03/13 = +0.16
•  Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.09 on 03/27/13 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 36.63 on 03/26/13 = -0.46
• Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.07 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 37.29 on 03/26/13 = +0.22
• Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.47 on 03/20/13  - Sold 1000 VXX@ 20.91 on 03/21/13 = +0.44
•  Bought 2000 FXI@ 36.21 on 03/19/13 - Sold 2000 FXI@ 37.08 on 03/20/13 = +0.87
•  Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.73 on 03/14/13 - Sold 1000 VXX@ 21.85 on 03/18/13 = +1.12
• Bought 1500 SPXU@ 30.98 on 02/27/13 - Sold 1500 SPXU @ 31.05 on 03/01/13 = +0.07
• Bought 2000 VXX @22.38 on 02/12/13 - Stopped out @22.38 on 02/14. Bought back @22.05 on 02/15/13 - Sold all 2800 VXX on 02/25/13 @ 24.30 = +2.05
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $5,220*  

* Margin position avg is $20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

IH&S or H&S?

The market continued its rally from the 1539 low and it invalidated the bearish nested 1-2 count. And from the look of the wave, this could turn out to be a bullish W1 like the other two times we've seen this year. Also, the market closed above the Trend Average and threatening with turning the trend back to bullish with another solid positive close. Looking at this short term, the market seems like its headed to 1590 area based on the possible IHS and wave projection. However, the market also put in the right shoulder for the bearish Head and Shoulders (please refer to post from Friday) that targets 1503. One of these patterns will eventually fail, the H&S fails if the market goes above 1573, the IHS fails if 1538 is breached.  So the best thing to do at this point is wait for these levels to clear and get a better idea of where the market is headed.

I am still holding VXX and will sell if we get anything less than a sell off on the next bearish wave, specially if the 1545-48 area holds. I mentioned last week when the correction started that we could get an ABC to 1538 and then see new highs or a 5 wave count to 1520 with further downside to come and so far it seems like the ABC is the most likely.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Neutral

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) initiated September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013 - Bought back 5% 02/27/13 - bought 5% 03/01/13 - bought 5% 03/04/13 - bought 5% 03/06/13

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy

• Bought 3000 VXX@ 20.22 on 04/04/13
• Bought 3000 VXX@ 19.83 on 04/02/13 Sold 3000 VXX@ 19.99 on 04/03/13 = +0.16
•  Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.09 on 03/27/13 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 36.63 on 03/26/13 = -0.46
• Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.07 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 37.29 on 03/26/13 = +0.22
• Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.47 on 03/20/13  - Sold 1000 VXX@ 20.91 on 03/21/13 = +0.44
•  Bought 2000 FXI@ 36.21 on 03/19/13 - Sold 2000 FXI@ 37.08 on 03/20/13 = +0.87
•  Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.73 on 03/14/13 - Sold 1000 VXX@ 21.85 on 03/18/13 = +1.12
• Bought 1500 SPXU@ 30.98 on 02/27/13 - Sold 1500 SPXU @ 31.05 on 03/01/13 = +0.07
• Bought 2000 VXX @22.38 on 02/12/13 - Stopped out @22.38 on 02/14. Bought back @22.05 on 02/15/13 - Sold all 2800 VXX on 02/25/13 @ 24.30 = +2.05
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $5,220*  

* Margin position avg is $20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Bearish Trend Average Confirmation

The market dropped hard today in the morning as I had been expecting but then it came back with a decent bounce after testing the 1538 level I mentioned as a target for an ABC when the top was confirmed a few days ago. And if this level holds, then I'll expect the market to do this ABC correction for the third time this year. For reference of what this potential looks like, take a look at the last 2 times it happened:

http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/2013/02/1498-level.html
http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/2013/03/close-below-trend-average.html

So if this bounce turns into a bullish wave on Monday, then I am expecting another potential Inverse Head and Shoulders that could target 1580. With that said, the last two times we saw these ABCs I leaned bullish because of the incomplete wave structure and the Trend Average being bullish. But this time, I am satisfied with the wave structure as it is and most importantly we have a confirmed change of the short term trend. So in this bearish scenario, the market could be putting in a bearish nested 1-2 that will reveal itself early next week. Also, if you look at the long term chart I put up today, we now have a neckline for an Head and Shoulder that would target 1503 if complete. Which way the market will go is uncertain as of now but going by the TA, I am positioning myself for downside.

I am still holding the VXX I bought yesterday and did not sell today when support hit. I suppose greed got the best of me as I was up over 5% on the trade I initiated just yesterday but VXX is just a weird animal. I had been calculating and expecting a $1 return for every 10 SP500 points retraced but after a 20 point drop it was just up a little over a dollar so I decided not to take profit until I saw 2 dollars. Instead, this demon gave up ALL gains and ended the day flat despite the market being down several points. Quite frustrating to trade volatility but it is very challenging and that's why I probably enjoy playing with it. I figure, at some point I will get the hang of it... and maybe early next week I'll get my $2 dollars!!

Have a Great Weekend.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bearish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) initiated September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013 - Bought back 5% 02/27/13 - bought 5% 03/01/13 - bought 5% 03/04/13 - bought 5% 03/06/13

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy

• Bought 3000 VXX@ 19.83 on 04/02/13 Sold 3000 VXX@ 19.99 on 04/03/13 = +0.16
•  Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.09 on 03/27/13 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 36.63 on 03/26/13 = -0.46
• Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.07 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 37.29 on 03/26/13 = +0.22
• Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.47 on 03/20/13  - Sold 1000 VXX@ 20.91 on 03/21/13 = +0.44
•  Bought 2000 FXI@ 36.21 on 03/19/13 - Sold 2000 FXI@ 37.08 on 03/20/13 = +0.87
•  Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.73 on 03/14/13 - Sold 1000 VXX@ 21.85 on 03/18/13 = +1.12
• Bought 1500 SPXU@ 30.98 on 02/27/13 - Sold 1500 SPXU @ 31.05 on 03/01/13 = +0.07
• Bought 2000 VXX @22.38 on 02/12/13 - Stopped out @22.38 on 02/14. Bought back @22.05 on 02/15/13 - Sold all 2800 VXX on 02/25/13 @ 24.30 = +2.05
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $5,220*  

* Margin position avg is $20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Correction or Sell Off?

The market bounced to the Trend Average as I had been expecting and it seems to be working on an ABC correction. Thing could get interesting once the C wave completes or it could go into another ABC before we see the next bearish leg which will tell us if there is a stronger sell off coming or this whole thing is just another consolidation. Right now the excuse being used for the correction is North Korea. The situation there seems to be volatile as the young Kim is trying to show the world is twice as crazy as his dad (and his dad was really crazy). So he might end up cornering himself into starting a military conflict for the sake of absolutely nothing and if that were to happen, the markets should sell off 5%+ easy.. then again Japan just reached the 13,000 level I had predicted in December and a 50% rise from the day the recession became official in Japan. Ironic, considering the Japanese economy is growing at 0%,

Today I executed my reloading plan, so I am back in VXX at $20.20.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) initiated September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013 - Bought back 5% 02/27/13 - bought 5% 03/01/13 - bought 5% 03/04/13 - bought 5% 03/06/13

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy

• Bought 3000 VXX@ 19.83 on 04/02/13 Sold 3000 VXX@ 19.99 on 04/03/13 = +0.16
•  Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.09 on 03/27/13 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 36.63 on 03/26/13 = -0.46
• Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.07 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 37.29 on 03/26/13 = +0.22
• Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.47 on 03/20/13  - Sold 1000 VXX@ 20.91 on 03/21/13 = +0.44
•  Bought 2000 FXI@ 36.21 on 03/19/13 - Sold 2000 FXI@ 37.08 on 03/20/13 = +0.87
•  Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.73 on 03/14/13 - Sold 1000 VXX@ 21.85 on 03/18/13 = +1.12
• Bought 1500 SPXU@ 30.98 on 02/27/13 - Sold 1500 SPXU @ 31.05 on 03/01/13 = +0.07
• Bought 2000 VXX @22.38 on 02/12/13 - Stopped out @22.38 on 02/14. Bought back @22.05 on 02/15/13 - Sold all 2800 VXX on 02/25/13 @ 24.30 = +2.05
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $5,220*  

* Margin position avg is $20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Market Update

I mentioned the possibility of a top yesterday and today's bearish wave seems to confirm this. I've been pretty accurate lately with these calls so hope this will be a permanent thing.. lol. What I didn't expect was for 1558 to break so easily, so I'll take that into consideration next time I see a similar pattern. Now that we have a 5 count wave to 1549 (or maybe a little lower), I can start projecting the target for the entire structure. If this is part of a 5 count wave (which I suspect it is) and there are no extensions, I am looking at 1520 as the level to watch which coincides with the 50 DMA area. However, since a structure like that could be just an A or a W1 then it would mean the market is going for the 200 DMA for sure. So before getting ahead of ourselves, we first need to see if we get that 5 count or another ABC correction and another higher high. If this turns out to be an ABC correction, then the market should bottom around the 1538 support level from the previous Int W4 or ABC.

I ended up selling all of my VXX as planned at first support so that was good and I will be reloading on the bounce to the TA.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) initiated September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013 - Bought back 5% 02/27/13 - bought 5% 03/01/13 - bought 5% 03/04/13 - bought 5% 03/06/13

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy

• Bought 3000 VXX@ 19.83 on 04/02/13 Sold 3000 VXX@ 19.99 on 04/03/13 = +0.16
•  Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.09 on 03/27/13 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 36.63 on 03/26/13 = -0.46
• Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.07 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 37.29 on 03/26/13 = +0.22
• Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.47 on 03/20/13  - Sold 1000 VXX@ 20.91 on 03/21/13 = +0.44
•  Bought 2000 FXI@ 36.21 on 03/19/13 - Sold 2000 FXI@ 37.08 on 03/20/13 = +0.87
•  Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.73 on 03/14/13 - Sold 1000 VXX@ 21.85 on 03/18/13 = +1.12
• Bought 1500 SPXU@ 30.98 on 02/27/13 - Sold 1500 SPXU @ 31.05 on 03/01/13 = +0.07
• Bought 2000 VXX @22.38 on 02/12/13 - Stopped out @22.38 on 02/14. Bought back @22.05 on 02/15/13 - Sold all 2800 VXX on 02/25/13 @ 24.30 = +2.05
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $5,220*  

* Margin position avg is $20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k

Possible Top?

The market closed at another all time high today and came close to the 1576 level as I had been expecting. And since this looks like an Rising Wedge, the high today could serve as the 5th wave and the top of the entire structure that started at 1485. I originally had 1589 as the ideal target when the first wave materialized and after the confirmed W4 low at 1538 last week, I mentioned 1578 as another likely destination. Now that we are within 1% of this area, the likelihood of a significant top is highly probable.  The question now to me is not so much of where the top will be exactly but whether the market will do a test of the 50 DMA and bounce from there to an all time high or go straight to the 200 DMA. If we take seasonality into account, a move to the 50 DMA and then another all time high around May would fit well into what has happened in the last few years. However, given the fact of how previously "hot" markets like the SSEC and HSI have corrected substantially this year, I wouldn't be all that surprised to see a stronger correction take place sooner.

And per my plan yesterday, I sold my short term position on FXI at a loss, so there goes my 7 for 7 (technically I bought at the right time around SP 1554 but Chinese stocks are still looking for a bottom) and I loaded on 3000 VXX in the 19's as I had been hoping for a while. My guess at this point is that 1558 and the TA has a good chance of holding on the coming bearish wave so I'll probably take profit there and reload on the bounce.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish

Medium Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

• 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) initiated September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013 - Bought back 5% 02/27/13 - bought 5% 03/01/13 - bought 5% 03/04/13 - bought 5% 03/06/13

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy

• Bought 3000 VXX@ 19.83 on 04/02/13
•  Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.09 on 03/27/13 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 36.63 on 03/26/13 = -0.46
• Bought 1000 FXI @ 37.07 - Sold 1000 FXI@ 37.29 on 03/26/13 = +0.22
• Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.47 on 03/20/13  - Sold 1000 VXX@ 20.91 on 03/21/13 = +0.44
•  Bought 2000 FXI@ 36.21 on 03/19/13 - Sold 2000 FXI@ 37.08 on 03/20/13 = +0.87
•  Bought 1000 VXX@ 20.73 on 03/14/13 - Sold 1000 VXX@ 21.85 on 03/18/13 = +1.12
• Bought 1500 SPXU@ 30.98 on 02/27/13 - Sold 1500 SPXU @ 31.05 on 03/01/13 = +0.07
• Bought 2000 VXX @22.38 on 02/12/13 - Stopped out @22.38 on 02/14. Bought back @22.05 on 02/15/13 - Sold all 2800 VXX on 02/25/13 @ 24.30 = +2.05
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
• Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
• Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
• Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
• Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
• Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
• Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
• Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
• Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
• Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
• Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $4,810*  

* Margin position avg is $20k

* Margin position in gold is $4k