Sunday, July 31, 2016

Beating the Market

Research has shown that the less than 1% of active traders are able to beat the market according to a study done by Brad Barber of UC Davis and Terrance Odean of UC Berkeley. We all know about people like Warren Buffet or Peter Lynch who have consistently beaten the market over the years but there is not a single technical trader known to do the same. With so many technical indicators and trading systems, we have to ask ourselves what is the use of all of this if none of them can beat buying and holding? After years of analyzing price patterns and workings on my trading system, I am ready to benchmark "Trending Waves" against the S&P500 to show if counting waves and using the Trend Average creates additional value. The planned launch date is January 1st, 2017 and it will consist of a single, non-leveraged or hedged position of SPY (S&P500 ETF). Which I will buy and sell using the system on this site. As the date approaches, I will elaborate more on the size of the position and how it will be evaluated.

Below are some articles that talks about the problem of beating the market.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/almost-no-one-can-beat-the-market-2013-10-25

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/10/beat-the-market.asp

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/03/12/why-smart-people-fail-to-beat-the-market/#293273b9444a

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics





Friday, July 29, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 29




















The market finally made a higher high today on what should be the beginning of the 5th wave. I am counting the micro waves today as a bullish nested 1-2 set up so prices must breakout early next week. I am raising my stop to 2163 and hopefully to slightly profitable on the breakout. I suppose traders will be using the weaker than expected GDP numbers as an excuse to rally since this translates into low rates for the foreseeable future. Where this gets interesting is what happens if the economy goes into a recession.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Thursday, July 28, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 28




















Not much to add today other than it is now the 11th day of this sideways trading within a tight range. It's actually getting boring! I'm still long and hoping.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 27




















The market managed again to test support and bounce again to make this the 10th consecutive session of bouncing around within a relatively tight range. I don't remember this long of a sideways move in years or ever for that matter. But I think it is safe to say a move out of range should come fairly soon. The close today is the first below the Trend Average since late June but this is a case of the market catching up to the TA and that normally indicates a time correction is finished or about to finish. So the market is ripe for another rally at this point, people who have been waiting to buy just need to make up their minds.

I almost got stopped out again today but prices bounced again off support. So I am hoping there will be a decisive move tomorrow or Friday so we don't go into the weekend in suspense.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 26




















The market didn't do much today but a stronger move should come tomorrow. My stop on my long position almost triggered in the morning but prices bounced off support again and hopefully we will see a bullish break out from the recent sideways pattern tomorrow.  It's been 9 days since the market got to this level and there have been 7 bounces off support which should be enough of a base for a new bullish leg to rally from.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Monday, July 25, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 25




















Prices failed to make a higher high today but there was a new all time high in pre-market trading and unless there is a lower low tomorrow, new all time highs are about to come. Once we get a substantial move higher then perhaps we will finally see a stronger sell off to test 2134 or 2159 if the top ends up much higher. I am going to go long right after this post in after-hours and use 2159 as my stop.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Friday, July 22, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 22




















The market rallied towards resistance as expected but was able to clear it and close the day marginally below its all time high. While a bearish pattern remains in place, a minor break of all time highs will signal the 5th micro-wave is still not done. I was tempted to short the market at resistance but looking at the impulsive look of the wave I refrained from it. I don't short impulsive waves or break outs, no need to be masochistic about it. The Trend Average has caught up with the market and we should see a stronger move fairly soon.

Lastly, I wanted to add that I watched the Donald speak last night. He is usually busy fighting or insulting people but he had a chance to speak to the public like a normal person. While I am no fan of Trump, I think he is going to do the unthinkable and win this election. He is a talented speaker and his delivery was effective. He is able to move the public with his populism and nationalism and since he is running against Hilary, it will be easy for him to portray her as a failure. So it looks like Trump will be getting the blame for the coming recession and mark my words it is coming sooner than later.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics





Thursday, July 21, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 21




















Prices corrected down to the 2159 support area earlier in the day and the bounce from this level has created the first potential topping pattern in quite some time. A rally to resistance at 2168 should be expected and I am going to get a short position at that level with a stop at the ATH assuming prices get there in a "corrective" form. If the pullback is confirmed, the natural target for the correction will be the gap at 2134.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 20




















Few weeks ago I stated:

Once gains are digested, the Inverse Head and Shoulder's pattern will be in place and it will be interesting to see its target of 2220 achieved. This might sound unthinkable to people who think this is a "bear market" but the pattern is there and the trends are supporting it.

Today's new all time high gets the market closer to the IHS target and prices might even get there later this month or early August at the current rate. The micro-count posted is technically finished since there are 5 waves in place but it would look better if the Ascending Triangle target mentioned yesterday is hit. Whatever the case, there are still plenty of bears and that helps push the market up during a break out. Only when everyone is bullish will things truly get bearish.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 19




















Prices continued to correct sideways today and another Ascending Triangle with a target of 2184 has formed. If the rally materializes, the micro-count posted would be completed and we should get a pullback to the rising Trend Average. I would have gone long again today had I seen the pattern earlier but was busy at work. If I see a clear topping pattern I might short for a test of the TA.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Monday, July 18, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 18




















The market ended slightly positive for the day and it seems like a higher high is about to come to finish up the W3 on the chart. Depending on how high the new ATH ends up being, the retrace could find support at 2151-55 or at 2134. A potential top for the ongoing rally could be around 2191. I am all in cash and just waiting patiently for a deeper correction, the market just needs an excuse to sell off and get bears excited again.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics





Friday, July 15, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 15




















The market made a slightly higher high today in the morning before "selling off" for the rest of the day. Arguably, the 5 micro-count from 2074 is complete with today's high but we could see one more high if the low today holds early next week. Once a W3 top is confirmed, we should see a correction to test the 2134 area to digest recent gains. I sold my longs earlier today and will be buying them back at the test of 2134. There is a Coup d'etat in Turkey as we speak, so we'll see how the market handles the news early next week. My guess is it will be just another excuse for a correction before another all time high.

Have a great weekend.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics






Thursday, July 14, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 14




















The rally continued today to new all time highs in a W3 that doesn't seem to like to retrace much. I ended up buying back my long position yesterday in after hours and will deploy the rest of my trading cash on a W4 pullback or in a combination of oil/gold/silver. I mentioned the Inverse Head and Shoulder's target of 2200 more than a week ago and it seems like the market wants to get there in a hurry.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 13




















Prices have refused to drop much and instead the micro-w4 is looking like a sideways correction. We could see another leg to test today's low tomorrow but it looks like another leg of the rally is about to start soon to yet another high. There are still a substantial number of bears, which implies there is still plenty of upside. Only when the skeptics join in the rally will prices drop. The market loves suckers (like the ones who sold during Brexit).

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 12




















The rally continued today without much of a retrace in what seems like a micro-w3. I assume a pullback to gap support will come in the next session or two so I can buy back my long position. The rally is being fueled by short covering and people buying the break out so this rally might go on for a while without a substantial correction, possibly to 2200+.

I started my calculation for the LT-W5 target and I am getting 2426 or 13% higher from current levels. I am assuming this LT-W5 will end up being a rising wedge. If the wave ends up being a regular impulsive wave, then I have 2722 or 27% higher. With that said, we have to keep in mind that 5th waves are free to end at anytime after the 3rd wave peak so one has to be particularly careful of support levels on this rally. Time wise, the ideal time frame would be a rally until summer 2017 or just in time to welcome the next mediocre President (both options are very mediocre imo, the worst I've seen in my adult life). I'm sure people will be blaming the next President for the next recession as most people are clueless of economic cycles but this should not come as a surprise to anyone who has been reading this blog for a while. So I hope people here can profit from this new rally and prepare for the coming bear market, which hopefully will retrace 50% of gains from 2009.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Monday, July 11, 2016

All Time High




















The market has finally made a new all time high and has now validated the Long Term Count I've used for the past 5 years. What's really interesting is how targets I've calculated were met or exceeded within reasonable a reasonable range, the most recent one being the LT-W4 prediction of 1820 which ended up being 1810. And now that we have the LT-W4 confirmed, I can work on a target for the LT-W5 that will conclude the entire bull market that started at 666 in 2009. The issue with 5th waves is that they can end anytime as long as there are 5 waves in place (which we do now) and seem to be affected by the length of its 3rd wave. So I'll work on it this week and see what numbers come up.


Not updated since 08/15 so it doesn't show this year's prices

















 


I ended up selling my longs at 1.6 of micro W1 (which was the high today and the target for the Ascending Triangle) and looking to buy again on a test of 2134. I assume people who did not cover their shorts this morning will be doing so at gap support.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Friday, July 8, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 8




















The market has broken out of its Ascending Triangle pattern mentioned yesterday and ended the day challenging the market's all time high as expected. Once the ATH resistance is cleared, we should see short covering and new buying that will propel the rally much higher. And again, the excuse for today's rally was the jobs report but everything that is "news" was already reflected in the charts few weeks ago. So, unless there is some bearish miracle, prices are headed higher in the near future. That should convince bears to re-evaluate their sentiment and join in the rally.. not! lol.

I didn't get the chance to buy the break out as I was sleeping but I have my other long position, which stop has now been raised to a profitable 2109. I might end up buying more China instead as that is starting to look promising.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics




Thursday, July 7, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 7




















The market challenged its most recent high earlier in the morning but couldn't get past resistance. Instead prices went into a minor correction and an Ascending Triangle pattern with a target of 2145 seems to be forming. So an all time high could occur in the next couple of sessions if prices succeed in breaking out of the pattern. I position traded my long position for a minor gain and looking to add more if there is a break out. I also raised my stop to 2090, so slightly above break even.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Wednesday, July 6, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 6




















The market continued to sell off earlier in the morning and tested the Trend Average as expected. However, loses were reversed for the rest of the day and a test of the 2050-2065 area doesn't look as likely anymore. Unless the pullback that started earlier this week turns into a complex correction, we could see prices headed for a bullish break out as soon as tomorrow. The excuse for today's turn around is the Feds holding on rising interest rates because of Brexit, which should not come as a surprise as Brexit is essentially a bullish event for the US stock market. As I stated here few weeks ago;

"My guess is that the Brexit side will win and that will help the market get to 2025. However, once the dust is settled, the potential of a recession in the UK and the rest of Europe will force the Feds to not raise rates, which in turn is bullish."

Anyway, I went 50% long after the market bounced off the Trend Average and set the stops at 2074. I will buy the rest once I see a clear micro-count evolve. Last but not least, China is starting to show signs of a break out so hopefully bullish momentum will continue in the next few weeks to confirm.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 5




















Hope everyone had a good holiday weekend. The market completed the count I was following in pre-market hours and today we saw the expected correction. Arguably, this current pullback could still be a micro-w4 but I'll just assume the Trend Average will be tested in the next couple of days. Once gains are digested, the Inverse Head and Shoulder's pattern will be in place and it will be interesting to see its target of 2220 achieved. This might sound unthinkable to people who think this is a "bear market" but the pattern is there and the trends are supporting it.

I will be going long hopefully tomorrow or Thursday on a successful test of 2050-2065.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Friday, July 1, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - July 1




















The market has now rallied back to Pre-Brexit levels and this has created the potential for an Inverse Head and Shoulders. So a pullback to the 2050 level more or less gives a good clear risk/reward set up in the near future. Hopefully we'll see the correction sometime next week so I can buy a good amount. I am sticking to 2017 as my "retirement" year and if my business can maintain the current momentum until December in addition to some help from my trading account or my China long positions, then I will have achieved my goal by January 2017.

Have a great weekend and Happy 4th to those in the US!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics