Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 31




















Hope everyone had a good weekend. The market has continued to make higher highs but has yet to challenge the 2111 level in the cash market. As I said last week, there are enough waves to call the 5 count complete and a break of 2087 would confirm that. However, I think there is room to go higher before a proper correction so we'll find out tomorrow or Thursday. A possible catalyst for a rally in June might be the UK exiting the EU. If that were to happen, my guess is the Feds will not be raising rates which in turn provides the perfect excuse to push higher.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Friday, May 27, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 27




















The 5th wave on the micro-count materialized today and technically speaking the wave structure from the 2025 low has enough waves to be considered complete. However, I think there's room for a push towards the 2111 high and if W5 would equal W1 then the target is 2120, so maybe bulls will come back in a really good mood after the long weekend and push prices substantially higher before a correction to the Trend Average. I didn't sell any of my longs today but I'll sell them towards a rally towards resistance and perhaps use those profits to buy VXX options for the correction.

Have a great and safe weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Thursday, May 26, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 26




















The market technically went into a correction today in what seems like a micro W4 but the pattern points to at least one more leg to challenge this year's high at 2111. Once the count completes, I expect a test of the rising Trend Average. What happens at that point is still unclear as there is still room for deeper corrections. But I already started building long positions in case this is the start of the LT-W5 to new all time highs. The stops are clear at this point so risk is fairly limited even after this rally. Perhaps 2016 will be the year the stock market finally peaks after a massive rally from its 666 lows. Maybe Pretcher was correct about 2016 being an important year, only that it was a significant high and not the ridiculous Dow 1000 or whatever it was he was predicting years ago.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/robert-prechter/prechter-deadly-bearish-big-picture 


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 25




















The rally continued today as expected and prices have already reached the IHS pattern I was hoping to trade couple of days ago. I expect a pullback once the 5 waves are completed to test the rising Trend Average and that will be a good point for me to go long. All major trends are now bullish for the first time this year, so this could be the beginning of a rally to new all time highs.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 24




















The market rallied substantially today following the micro-count posted. I was hoping prices would go just a bit lower to trade the Inverse Head and Shoulder's pattern but unfortunately bulls decided to leave without me. However, there will be more chances to get in the near future. I try to keep my risk at 3:1 (risk 1 for a 3x return) so that even if there is a 50/50 profitable trade rate, I'll still be substantially ahead.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Monday, May 23, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 23




















The market went into a correction as expected and I am looking to see how the 2039 level holds in the next couple of sessions. Support at that range will help the market rally towards the 2100 level so hopefully I'll be able to get long on a favorable set up.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Friday, May 20, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 20




















The market managed a decent bounce today that could be setting up the market for a new rally as long as yesterday's low holds. It would still be good to see the 200 DMA at 2012 tested but there are enough corrective waves in place to call for an end of this multi-week correction. With that said, looking at the patterns on a daily chart, I see a potential Head and Shoulders targeting 1970 so that has to be taken into consideration as long as the short term trend remains bearish. I will go long early next week if I see corrective waves to 2039.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 19




















Sorry for the late update. I've been driving for most of the day to Northern California to meet friends and just didn't have the time. A 200 DMA test looks likely given today's lower lows and I think we should see the market start rallying fairly soon or start breaking down if a bearish pattern in place plays out. I'll elaborate more on that on the next update, it's time to go to sleep.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 18




















The market couldn't make up its mind in today's volatile trading. A lower low was made at 2034 before bouncing to close the day even. Unless we see strong selling very soon, I think a new rally is about to come as many oscillators have reset. I ended up selling half my longs at the TA test but then stopped at break even on my other half during the sell off. I am looking to go long again if I see another favorable trade pattern.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 17




















All the gains from yesterday were reversed in today's sell off. While the short term count is not clear given yesterday's 5 count invalidation, all these recent waves are pointing to a sideways correction and we could see the bull market resume at any moment as long as prices remain above the 50 DMA.  I initially wanted to go long at 2053 but decided to be patient and got in at 2045 instead with a short stop at 2039.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Monday, May 16, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 16




















The sell off was effectively stopped right at support and the bearish count has been eliminated. Most indicators pointed to lower prices at the end of last week but I guess there are plenty of buyers at the 50 DMA. We could see another bearish wave to test the 2045-2050 area again but it might just get to 2053 and head back up. So far this has been a time correction given the limited downside since the 2011 top almost 4 weeks ago. I will go long on the retrace and place stops at support.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Friday, May 13, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 13




















The sell off today puts a potential bearish 5 count in play. Prices closed right at support but the pattern looks bearish and the wave today could be a bearish W3 that could go right through support on Monday. Going by the length of what would be labeled a W1, a bearish 5 count targets 2007 or basically the 200 DMA at 2012. I wanted to go long yesterday before the bounce but given the pattern today, I will be waiting at the 200 to go long again.

Lastly, I was checking PE ratios last night and I noticed the PE for the S&P500 is at 23.6 which is higher than the Nasdaq. The Russell 2000 is at 400+, with some claiming it is negative so it shows as "NA" on some financial sites. To put this into perspective, at the height of the "bubble" in China last year, its SP500 equivalent was 20 and its small cal was 250, now those PE numbers are down by half. So while I think the economy is doing fine, the market is expensive and one more crazy run to higher highs would set up the market for a reversion to the mean sell off. The mean is 15.50 or about 35% assuming lower than the current PE ratio. A quick calculation puts the SP500 at 1333 as the current mean for the market.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Thursday, May 12, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 12




















The 5 count was invalidated today but the market found support right above the support layer I mentioned yesterday (2045-2050) and rallied back to the Trend Average. The short term bias remains bearish but if the low today (2053) holds, we will see a rally towards the 2100 level. If bears manage to breach support then a 200 DMA at 2012 test is almost certain. I was hoping for prices to reach the 2045-2050 band to lower my risk for a long position but unfortunately prices did not get that low.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 11




















The rally was not able to follow through today and the micro 5 count posted looks like it could be invalidated. The wave today doesn't look right for a W4 but technically the count still has a chance of completing. If the market continues to sell off, there are several layers of support in the 2045-2050 area and could end up being another opportunity to go long with limited downside risk. I sold the rest of my longs at the TA as planned and will go long again if there is a good set up.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 10




















Couple of weeks ago I stated "If the current bearish wave turns out to be a C wave and it equals Ax1.618 in length, we will see a test of the the 50 DMA around 2040". Once tested, the bottom left a bullish pattern. "The close sets up a potential small Inverse and Head & Shoulders that targets 2080 more or less". And today the market rallied to 2084 in what potentially could turn into a bullish 5 wave count. While the count could be a zig zag and another "sell off" could come, I am leaning bullish because of the long term and medium term trend. Still, I am not getting greedy so I sold half my longs for a decent profit and raising my stops on the rest to the Trend Average level. If the current wave can make it to 2100, we could see a set up that will challenge the all time highs.

And speaking of ATH, it's been a year since the market made it to 2134. The bearish way to look at this is that the market is still in a topping process. The alternative, which sounds more reasonable to me is that these last 12 months has been a sideways/time correction and there is now enough of a base for a LT W5 to complete. So perhaps we will have a very bullish summer if bulls can finally gain traction.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish trend being challenged
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Monday, May 9, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 9




















Prices made a higher high today and remained range-bound for the rest of the session. We could see a bearish wave test the 2045-2048 support level in the next session or two  but ultimately we should see the Trend Average challenged sometime this week. This assuming the 2039 low stays intact for the time being.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Friday, May 6, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 6




















The market finally did a proper 50 DMA test today by going briefly under it before rising for most of the day. The close sets up a potential small Inverse and Head & Shoulders that targets 2080 more or less. Not sure if the multi-week correction is over yet but the bounce allows for a low risk trade. So I went long at the left shoulder level with the 2039 low as the stop.

It's currently hard to see an economic recession that will bring down the stock market given the current economic momentum and how low interest rates are. So maybe there will be one or two more years of good times? Someone actually just called me to offer me a 3.5% refi loan which I am going to take given how ridiculously low this is. In fact, instead of paying off my home loan as I originally was planning to do later this year, I might use that money and buy another house to rent out to wealthy techies or vacationers. Since our state deliberately passed legislation to raise minimum wages to $15 an hour (a 50% raise without any economic research apparently by our brilliant leftist state politicians), I predict rents will rise substantially among lower income areas which will indirectly push up all other areas. So owning real estate is a particularly good bet at this time. What most people don't get is that they are not getting a 50% raise in purchasing power, they're getting a nominal 50% raise that will translate into a spike in inflation. Anyone who is smart enough to hire people, is smart enough to pass on costs to consumers.

Have a great weekend!

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Thursday, May 5, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 5




















There was a rally attempt early morning but gains faded by the end of the day. A couple of more corrective waves would effectively reset oscillators and set the market for another strong rally. But it's not clear yet if we will see just the 50 DMA tested or the support range between 1993-2020. 

My long position was stopped out at break even since I raised my stops to my buy price (perhaps prematurely). I'll try again when I see another lower risk/high reward set up. 
 
Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics


Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 4




















Last week I stated "If the current bearish wave turns out to be a C wave and it equals Ax1.618 in length, we will see a test of the the 50 DMA around 2040". The 2045 low today technically tested the 50 DMA at 2040 and this might be as low as the market gets in the short term if the current wave is indeed a C. Also, this lower low completes the count I had been following since last week. However, I don't really like the way the 5 count looks despite being technically sound and it might be better to label it a zig zag. The alternative for that zig zag is a bearish 1-2 set up with a strong sell off ahead. I will be get in long with a stop at 5 points below the 50 DMA.

Now with Trump being the presumptive GOP nominee, I hope he will pick John Kasich as his VP. If he does that, at least he can persuade those that lean towards establishment Republicans to vote for him. It would also show that he is not as crazy as he sounds. He needs to win the Midwest to win the election.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/03/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map/index.html

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics



Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 3




















The market gapped down this morning and struggled for the rest of the day. However, a lower low hasn't been made and the micro-5 count remains incomplete. What happens tomorrow could end up setting the tone for the next few weeks if the sell off accelerates. However, if the 2052.28 low remains in place then we will likely see the market rally again towards the recent 2111 high.

Lastly, I think it is now safe to say Trump is going to be the GOP nominee. If Republicans lose the election they will have no one to blame but themselves. One thing that is for sure is that Donald will be all out on Hilary and that will make this campaign one of the most entertaining ones ever. My prediction is if he manages to make Hilary angry (like he has done with Rubio and Cruz), Trump will have a shot. I think he is clown but at least he has tax plan I really like.

For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics





Monday, May 2, 2016

Elliott Wave Stock Market Update - May 2




















The market bounced sharply today and came close to invalidating the bearish micro-count in place. The count looks out of proportion as it is but I'll continue to assume a lower low until the 2086 gets breached. If bulls are able to get past resistance and get to 2100, we could see a set up for a challenge to all time highs. I am hoping for more downside to get a good position but I might have to buy if there's a favorable pattern.


For further analysis on the NASDAQ, DJI, RUT, Gold, Silver and Oil please visit http://www.ewaveanalytics.com


Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

* Trends are not trade signals. Trends are posted for situational awareness only and does not take into account wave counts, technical or fundamental conditions of the market. While mechanically trading the posted trends is feasible, keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and as such are prone to whipsaws and I personally do not use nor recommend them to initiate or close positions in the market without taking into consideration other factors.

Elliott Wave Analytics