Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Reversal?




















The market made another post financial crisis high as I predicted yesterday but the market found the 1523 level challenging. And like I said yesterday if 1523 gets broken then we might see a stronger rally to 1540+. But for now this key level is holding and volume is so light that it implies buyers are starting to exhaust, so perhaps the market is about to reverse. The Spinning Top candlestick put in supports the case as well as the Intraday MACD reversal. So I am watching how the Trend Average holds (currently at 1511) but for all intent and purposes, the "real" reversal will come when 1495 gets broken. Until then the assumption is corrections and then higher highs as long as the market closes above the Trend Average. And to make something clear since I read a comment that didn't seem to understand what the TA is. The Trend Average is the daily median averaged out for an specific period of time. If today's number is higher than yesterday and yesterday was higher than the day before, then the Trend Average is bullish. This is not an subjective observation, this is a description of incrementally higher numerical values that establishes the direction of the market. So when I say the trend is bullish, it means the underlying numerical value is pointing UP as opposed to sideways or DOWN. This is what I refer to as "fact" and it would be a very costly mistake to turn a blind eye to this fact and start rationalizing why the market will do this or that.. I've seen many people come and go  (as in losing money and leaving trading altogether) who do exactly just that despite the fact the trends are clearly posted everyday here. Then again, maybe there's the perception that free information is not as valuable.. big mistake.

I bought back the VXX hedge at $22.38 so we'll see how that goes in the next few days..

Main S&P 500 Trends
Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio
  • 60% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 
  • Bought 800 VXX @23.70 and 1700 SPXU@ 31.68
  • Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013 - Sold @22.70 to position trade on 01/25/2013. Took loss $2.00
  • Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
  • Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
  • Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
  • Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
  • Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
  • Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
  • Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.
Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*
* Margin position is usually $15-20k
* Position in gold is $4k

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