Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Projection target level met





















The market closed yet again at another post financial crisis high today at 1492, which is the level I had been projecting since December. So now I am expecting the market to start stalling around here and start a correction. Top picking is difficult, so the market could still have more upside to it so while the top is around these levels imo, I could still be off by a percent or two. And like I said last week, the real question is how deep the correction will be. Right now, there is nothing in the near term that would "worry" the markets so I can't see any major corrections taking place. But for starters, maybe the market will do a test of the Trend Average in the next session or two first and once it loses TA support, then we'll see something more significant. Perma-Bears are calling for the end of the world but that's based on their hate of the rally (since they were shorting it or just missed it altogether), other known traders that I give more credibility are calling for a correction. There is Tom Demark, who charges $500 a month who projected 1492 as the high before a 5% correction, so we'll see if his projections are worth the money.. a test of the 50 DMA would be great but I'm not so sure gap support will break at this point.

I ended up selling another 10% of my long portfolio, so I am keeping 80% long. I also added another 1/3 of my expected hedge, so another 1000 VXX at $23.68 which gives me a cost average of $24.72. I had expected to buy this ETF at $25-26 but it has dropped like crazy so I'm hoping it will find some support around these levels. It'd be nice if it rallied up to $30 but I'm doubting it will even reach $27 in the current environment. And Gold btw is showing some signs of life, so maybe the correction there will be over soon.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio
  • 80% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 
  • Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013
  • Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
  • Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
  • Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
  • Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
  • Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
  • Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
  • Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.
Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*
* Margin position is usually $15-20k
* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 
As of 01/02/2013 - 13.5%*
* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio that started in September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015, with 100% being the ideal retirement level.

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