The market should start correction tomorrow (unless the China data is used as an excuse to continue the rally) and like I said yesterday, the first stop is the Trend Average which was 1479 today. Ideally I'd like to see the market punch through the TA and then use it as resistance in a substantial correction. If the market uses the TA as support then the market will rally past 1500. Futures are down as I write this post so maybe we'll see a stronger gap down, if Europe sells off then the US will follow. And btw APPL is the reason futures are down and I am planning to buy me some shares when it finally reaches a bottom. As of now, the charts look bearish as all trends have been down for quite some time now and that low on APPL that Tom Demark (the $500 per month guy) mentioned a few days ago as the "bottom" for APPL was taken out after hours, so it might get uglier for APPL and the Nasdaq in the next few sessions. But once it finds a bottom, APPL will rally hard (just like Netflix and Facebook have).
I almost finalized my hedge purchase today when VXX broke $23 but I figure I'd wait just in case 1500 materializes.
Main S&P 500 Trends
Short Term Trend = BullishMedium Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Portfolio
- 80% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement. - Sold 10% on 12/27/12, Sold 10% 01/22/2013
Short Term Margin Trading Strategy
- Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.78 as of 01/16/2013, Bought 1000 VXX @23.68 on 01/22/2013
- Bought 1000 VXX @ $25.92 as of 01/15/2013 - Closed @25.96 on 01/15/2013 . = +0.04
- Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
- Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
- Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
- Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
- Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
- Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
- Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
- Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05
- Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
- Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
- Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.
Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*
* Margin position is usually $15-20k
* Margin position in gold is $4k
Retirement GoalAs of 01/02/2013 - 13.5%*
* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio that started in September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015, with 100% being the ideal retirement level.