Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Trend Average Test

I mentioned yesterday the market was going to test the Trend Average and the market did it today and on the same wave too, so now we have to see how the market rebounds. I've been doing this Trend Average type of predictions for two years now and it pretty much works like clockwork, it always happens with the exception of strong intermediate waves. And perhaps the longer I continue to analyze the markets, the better I will get at identifying these intermediate waves so as to increase the percentage of winning trades. It is a fact at this point that minor waves always test the TA, so as a trader it's great knowing where the market is and the levels it must re-visit. And I know there isn't such thing as a "sure thing" in the stock market but this TA test has always happened in the last 2 years I've been tracking it. Unlike wave counts or oscillators, there is always a clear numerical target.

Anyway, today the markets seems to have found a short term bottom and depending on the counter rally, we should be able to project downside. However, should this bullish wave take out 1423 then we might see   a strong rally. I went long with XIV today per my mechanical signal, so hope that goes well. Right now China and HSI are rallying, so we'll see if that translates into anything in the US market tomorrow. And btw Gold seems to be headed for a test of the initial intermediate wave lows so I'm hoping that holds.

Main S&P 500 Trends 

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

  • 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong).

Short Term Trading Strategy 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin
  • Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
  • Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
  • Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
  • Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
  • Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

No comments:

Post a Comment