Wednesday, December 5, 2012

SP500 working on a Flat?





















It was a somewhat confusing day earlier today but at the end of the day, the result was about the same. The A wave just got extended (as in it wasn't finished yesterday ) and the market is not working on a B wave with the potential to form a "Flat" by topping around 1423. However, should this wave rally hard past 1423 then it will be a W3, the short term direction is up just not sure to what level just yet. I figured the HSI and China rallying 2-3% last night would help the US stage a decent rally but instead Apple shares sold off today and dragged the entire market. So I guess each market is doing its own thing at the moment. And for those who are following the HSI, the count I have is Bullish W3 of a W1 of W5, so there seems to be more upside to come and my target at this point is 22750 going by wave proportion. I am hoping to cash out of 30-40% of my shares in FXI around those levels or any signs of a top. I am hoping to see $40 by the end of the month on this run and that'll make it a very nice Christmas gift for me :)

I ended up selling XIV for a minor profit in the middle of my confusion but I bought back again once there was more clarity. So I'll log the first one as a final trade and the second one as a new one.

Main S&P 500 Trends 

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

  • 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong).

Short Term Trading Strategy 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
  • Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
  • Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
  • Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
  • Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
  • Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

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