Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Consolidation




















The market seems to be consolidating on a W4 wave but it is looking very similar to the wave with the three rising valleys, in that there was a W1 and then a W3 that was 1.6 of W1 followed by 5 waves down. The difference this time is the W4 has not gone into W1 territory yet so we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see if the market intends to test the Trend Average. For the sake of simplicity it'd be better is the market cooperates with the count and rallies tomorrow! We now have 12 days left for a Fiscal Cliff deal so the pressure is on but I get the feeling a couple of hundred billion is not that big of a negotiation gap at this point, so both parties (or one of them) will budge and compromise, just in time to give us a Santa Claus rally.

Main S&P 500 Trends

Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Neutral Leaning Bullish (change of trend imminent if market remains above the TA)
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio

  • 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong) since September 2012. Only position trading 30-40% of portfolio for cost improvement.

Short Term Margin Trading Strategy 
  • Bought 30 AAPL @ $509.50 as of 12/14/2012 on margin - Closed @514.50 on 12/17/2012. = +5.00
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.62 as of 12/13/2012 on margin - Closed @18.70 on 12/14/2012. = +0.08
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.80 as of 12/05/2012 on margin - Closed @18.88 on 12/07/2012. = +0.08
  • Bought 1000 XIV @18.41 as of 12/04/2012 on margin - Closed @18.63 on 12/05/2012. = +0.22
  • Bought 500 VXX @29.23 on 12/03/2012 - Closed @30.12 on 12/03/2012. = +0.89
  • Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
  • Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
  • Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
  • Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.
Net Profit since 11/08/2012 on open and closed short term positions = $2,625*
* Margin position is usually $15-20k
* Margin position in gold is $4k

Retirement Goal 
As of 12/18/2012 - 10.8%*
* Percentage gain for total liquid portfolio dated September 2012, Goal is to double portfolio for retirement by September 2015.

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