The market kept rallying as I expected yesterday and came within a few points of the 50 DMA and the previous peak from earlier this year (1423). So ideally, the wave will complete the impulse by testing these levels and then go on to a Fib retrace. Looking at the news, I think the environment is perfect for this to happen as the market is essentially trading on the Fiscal Cliff news.The ongoing negotiations and posturing by both the dems and the reps, will be a good excuse for a pullback to the Trend Average perhaps even the 200 DMA again. But a resolution to the Fiscal Cliff before Christmas will sure add fuel to the market to stage a big rally. The key levels to watch will be the 1385 low, the TA and the 200 DMA. I will probably attempt a short or buy back VXX at the 50 DMA and buy at the TA or 200 DMA with the 1385 as my stop. And obviously I'll have to see how the market gets to these levels for a better forecast. Had I been awake yesterday, I would have been up 4-5% already today.. oh well. At least HSI is 0.5% within this year's high so I am good there.
Main S&P 500 Trends
Short Term Trend = Bullish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish
Long Term Portfolio
- 100% Long in Red Chips traded in HSI (Mainland China stocks traded in Hong Kong).
Short Term Trading Strategy
- Bought 500 VXX @30.77 on 11/23/2012 - Closed @29..68 on 11/27/2012. = -1.09
- Bought 500 VXX @31.54 on 11/20/2012 - Stopped out @31.11 on 11/21/2012. = -0.43
- Closed position 500 @ 18.26 on 11/20/2012. Sold 500 @ 17.79, raised stop to break even on the other 500 as of 11/19/2012. Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin - position trade cost improvement 4 cents, so net cost $15.94 as of 11/16/2012 - Profit = $2.05
- Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
- Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
- Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.