Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Going for the 200 DMA?

The elections results are in and the market used it as an excuse to sell off. And in retrospect, the Head and Shoulders I posted about couple of days ago was not invalidated as I thought yesterday as the initial 1434 level was never breached. So technically speaking now that I think of it, the target remains the same and I lean towards seeing the 200 DMA before a bounce. Another way of looking at it is counting waves, as H&S formations are basically W1-2s and if you look at the chart you can see where the count is. At one point yesterday I thought we were going to see a break of 1434 as the market was down but not enough to make a lower low and then rallied back after Obama's re-election was announced. But the pattern broke the other way, as it happens sometimes.

I have $0 invested in the US so I am still waiting for an opportunity when the 200 DMA materializes. However, a break of the 200 DMA would be bad for the bulls so that level must hold. Gold actually rose today and I am sticking with emerging market stocks. I think re-electing Obama confirms Bernanke will stay as well as his fiscal policies. So you can bet the Feds will be ready act aggressively should the market fall more than what they'd like (which it's 20% if I remember correctly).

Long Term Portfolio: 100% Long (China and HSI Markets Only). Margin positions in GOLD initiated 11/06.
Short Term Trading Strategy: $0 in the US. Sold XIV position from 10/25 at $16.10 (there goes my coffee!) - Bought XIV @17.64 as of 10/19. Buying XIV back at the 200 DMA.

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