Thursday, November 15, 2012

Coming bounce

The market continued selling off today but was able to find support at the 1348 level and looking at the "micro" count there is the possibility of a bottom there. However, the market must rally in the next session or two to confirm. And now that the 200 DMA was lost it will serve as resistance so it remains to be seen what the market does when it reaches that level. If the market can not overcome 1380 then odds increase we will see lower lows so the rally that is coming (and it is coming sooner than later) will be critical to the bullish long term trend.

I couldn't resist buying back XIV after the SP500 triggered my "auto buy" indicator  (TA-2*VIX) so we'll see how that goes. Also, my longs in Asia have been affected by the US markets this time so hope a bottom has been found at least on an intermediate basis. But if not, the lower that market (China) goes the more I will continue to buy. With a yield close to 5%, I just can't refuse as it is ridiculously cheap IMO.

Main S&P 500 Trends 

Short Term Trend = Bearish
Medium Term Trend = Bearish
Long Term Trend = Bullish

Long Term Portfolio
  • 100% Long (China and HSI Only) 

Short Term Trading Strategy 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.98 as of 11/15/2012 on margin 
  • Bought 1000 XIV @16.88 as of 11/14/2012 on margin - Stopped out @ 16.66 on 11/14/2012. = -0.22
  • Bought 1000 XIV @15.67 as of 11/08/2012 on margin - sold 1000 XIV @ 16.25 on 11/12/2012 = +0.58
  • Margin positions in Gold initiated 11/06/2012.

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